Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe81eeed79303900dbde96f91f5c98a03eb6fb4143508e0ea49bb7279cb34d592
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 10c | 2,307$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 27c | 740.67$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.77 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 634.98$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.7 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 35c | 603.7$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.79 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 18c | 600$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.27 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 526.04$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 456.91$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 386.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 371.59$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 18c | 349.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 29c | 341.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 23c | 324.46$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 322.19$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 23c | 291.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 5c | 279.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 15c | 276.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 247.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 237.2$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x627b…285bbacked Yes | 45c | 224.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 29c | 204.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 11c | 198.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 197$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 189.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 186.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 23c | 170$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 27c | 170$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 145.25$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 144.09$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb843…eac8backed Yes | 28c | 140.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e1…96c8backed Yes | 30c | 132.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 29c | 123.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 11c | 122.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 9c | 118.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…ea9abacked Yes | 36c | 117.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 69c | 114.76$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 70c | 113.13$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 70c | 104.9$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed Yes | 27c | 104.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 30c | 102$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 34c | 101.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 94.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4746backed Yes | 31c | 89.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 29c | 86.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 33c | 83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 32c | 77.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 27c | 76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 75.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 71c | 71.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…53f3backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 68.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 64.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 27c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 25c | 63.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 21c | 62.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c7…5378backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4235…81e4backed Yes | 31c | 55.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758d…9548backed Yes | 32c | 54.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 32c | 53.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 50.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…cd3cbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -13.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66e…7fe2backed No | 72c | 49.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 30c | 46.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 33c | 46.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e2…6e0cbacked No | 63c | 45.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…3f76backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked Yes | 41c | 41.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ad…dfbdbacked No | 70c | 40.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed Yes | 30c | 39.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 36c | 38.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8530…105ebacked Yes | 29c | 37.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…ec99backed Yes | 34c | 37.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2e96backed No | 70c | 36.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 30c | 36.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 71c | 35.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…04a9backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db8…e377backed No | 73c | 32.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…03e8backed No | 72c | 32.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc85…1631backed Yes | 32c | 31.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.