Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$425 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00cf75e944b09cb89707a34c62f2c444f0452a24a6f412ccfedd2b02cb29619e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 18c | 4,544$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.65 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 78c | 2,598$2,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.06 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 22c | 778.13$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.08 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 12c | 707.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 693.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 35c | 417$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +50%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 405.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 16c | 399.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 44c | 399.97$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 4c | 317.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 18c | 242.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 8c | 167.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 28c | 156.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 20c | 148.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…f2bdbacked No | 46c | 121.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 22c | 117.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 28c | 113.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 25c | 106.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…d65bbacked Yes | 50c | 105$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed No | 33c | 97.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 23c | 89.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…73e6backed No | 54c | 86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 55c | 76.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 28c | 71.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 19c | 52.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…8444backed Yes | 68c | 49.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes | 72c | 45.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 53c | 42.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 57c | 27.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…6b7cbacked Yes | 78c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a5…90d6backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…9077backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff4…a63fbacked Yes | 75c | 13.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$425 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $425-$430 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $430-$435 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $435-$440 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $440-$445 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $445-$450 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $460-$465 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$470 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.