Premier League · resolved market
Hull City AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00dff50e9f7cdb10245c13327bb497d2cd14da807bf144f382115c05b123ff1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 20,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 239 | 26.4%63 W · 176 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 16,153$12,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,269.73 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 76c | 4,454$3,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.89 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4594…b1acbacked Over | 28c | 1,797$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 75c | 663.28$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.28 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 21c | 637$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.66 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…9d2dbacked Under | 76c | 529.01$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.01 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 60c | 361.12$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.74 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 23c | 336$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…ce96backed Over | 33c | 304.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 399 | 48.4%193 W · 206 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 37c | 170.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 31c | 160.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 25c | 114.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Over | 33c | 108.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 272 | 27.9%76 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…5a30backed Over | 56c | 106.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 23c | 89.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 318 | 49.1%156 W · 162 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Over | 16c | 88.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 38c | 76.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 375 | 54.9%206 W · 169 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 41c | 75.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 167 | 31.7%53 W · 114 L | -18.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…3573backed Over | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 36c | 65.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 379 | 58%220 W · 159 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 36c | 52.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 46c | 44.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed5…472bbacked Under | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Under | 69c | 37.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Under | 72c | 32.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 32c | 31.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d4…77e8backed Under | 66c | 30.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Under | 75c | 28.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 74c | 26.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ec…27c4backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 72c | 23.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 365 | 54.5%199 W · 166 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…d8ffbacked Under | 74c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…bbd7backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hull City AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Hull City AFC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hull City AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hull City AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hull City AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.