Premier League · resolved market
Hull City AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2d1215df806f402b71b5928b4dceaef35cebfb3d2e1304a30a685a1ce9e1a5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 11,413$6,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,835.57 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 10,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,999.97 | 239 | 26.4%63 W · 176 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…a9e9backed Over | 46c | 5,435$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,934.78 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 4,894$2,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,568.1 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Over | 75c | 949.12$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.52 | 150 | 60.7%91 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 39c | 930.56$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.32 | 150 | 30.7%46 W · 104 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 54c | 920.14$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.04 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Under | 54c | 910.46$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…d73fbacked Over | 46c | 799.65$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 73c | 685.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 36c | 677.3$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.89 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…17debacked Over | 73c | 496$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 25c | 446.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.94 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 45c | 399.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.99 | 369 | 56.9%210 W · 159 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 42c | 357.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.48 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 56c | 303.57$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 44c | 276.76$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.32 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b46…188ebacked Over | 47c | 215.8$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.06 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 399 | 48.4%193 W · 206 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 46c | 194.85$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.85 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 350 | 56.9%199 W · 151 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 71c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 300 | 59.7%179 W · 121 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 53c | 145.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…818ebacked Over | 44c | 140.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.91 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 38c | 136.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 194 | 55.2%107 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 38c | 130.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 45c | 125$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 375 | 57.3%215 W · 160 L | +21.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 28c | 120$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…3573backed Over | 47c | 106.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2a…72f1backed Under | 79c | 97.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Under | 58c | 96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 326 | 56.7%185 W · 141 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 58c | 96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 367 | 58.3%214 W · 153 L | +23.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 58c | 96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 561 | 58.6%329 W · 232 L | +29.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Under | 58c | 95.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 331 | 56.8%188 W · 143 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Under | 58c | 95.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 315 | 57.8%182 W · 133 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 58c | 95.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 322 | 55.9%180 W · 142 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed Under | 61c | 94.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 32c | 72.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 194 | 41.8%81 W · 113 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3d…a3e8backed Under | 67c | 71.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6b…8509backed Under | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…3ea1backed Over | 72c | 68.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9a…796cbacked Over | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 41c | 56.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 55c | 50.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 212 | 50%106 W · 106 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 457 | 51.2%234 W · 223 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 296 | 57.8%171 W · 125 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Under | 58c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 284 | 58.8%167 W · 117 L | +16.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Under | 58c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 255 | 60%153 W · 102 L | +18.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9209…dc9bbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…8ad7backed Under | 56c | 44.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…3161backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Under | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 262 | 59.5%156 W · 106 L | +13.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Under | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 313 | 59.4%186 W · 127 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | -12.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 160 | 60%96 W · 64 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 36c | 38.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…08bcbacked Under | 30c | 36.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 58c | 35.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 327 | 55.7%182 W · 145 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x313c…61d9backed Over | 42c | 34.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Over | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 55c | 32.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Under | 49c | 32.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 250 | 57.6%144 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Under | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 258 | 58.1%150 W · 108 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 54c | 31.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 35c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 282 | 46.1%130 W · 152 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 277 | 58.8%163 W · 114 L | +17.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 42c | 28.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 375 | 54.9%206 W · 169 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 276 | 61.6%170 W · 106 L | +22.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Over | 44c | 23.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Under | 58c | 23.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 466 | 60.5%282 W · 184 L | +30.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 59c | 22.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b2…9603backed Under | 64c | 21.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Under | 56c | 21.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…5a2dbacked Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.32per pick | 54cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Under | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hull City AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Hull City AFC vs. Chelsea FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hull City AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hull City AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hull City AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.