Movies · resolved market
Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01081df0cc99aef286312d8e520fa35d881918f3d0229556bc0a87be0dd9fd37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd673…0c20backed Yes | 0c | 41,300$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d04…8859backed Yes | 16c | 3,090$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 19c | 2,847$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.61 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 2,409$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.93 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 42c | 2,154$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 29c | 2,131$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.92 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 26c | 1,737$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,511$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.42 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 52c | 1,411$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.03 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa147…3fccbacked Yes | 36c | 1,404$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes | 14c | 1,204$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.72 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 69c | 1,145$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.04 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 53c | 1,087$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.41 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 39c | 982.6$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.44 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 42c | 658.18$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.2 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 651.88$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.87 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 67c | 532.94$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.6 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 44c | 529.54$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.71 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 6c | 466$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5025…6581backed Yes | 32c | 366$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 7c | 365.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Yes | 37c | 350$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a0…6feebacked Yes | 77c | 324.68$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 20c | 199.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 12c | 142$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 15c | 111.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…f29cbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…c521backed Yes | 38c | 90.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 29c | 85.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 67c | 75.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 63c | 55.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f6…9067backed Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 50.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…1a48backed Yes | 50c | 47.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 34c | 44.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f1…efe2backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 51c | 39.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…191fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50?this page
- Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50 and 60?Yes won
- Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60 and 70?No won
- Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70 and 80?No won
- Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be greater than 80?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.