TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: MOUZ vs OG (BO1)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof MOUZ, OG
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$130,130
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$163,582

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,130 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7f76…3e05backed MOUZ64c22,366$14,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,042.216750.7%34 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed OG35c15,386$5,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,384.9922848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked MOUZ67c9,386$6,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,070.862937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked OG33c6,274$2,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,075.382,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed OG34c5,680$1,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,931.2116842.9%72 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed OG35c3,500$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.9916050.6%81 W · 79 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked OG35c3,404$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,191.5534146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe612…abc9backed OG37c3,312$1,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.866237.1%23 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed MOUZ65c3,244$2,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.7411346.9%53 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked MOUZ65c3,060$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.7515852.5%83 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed OG35c3,009$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.1128341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed MOUZ65c3,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0506261.3%38 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed OG35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.988253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17d0…8449backed MOUZ66c2,699$1,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.69966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb78f…3a77backed MOUZ65c2,557$1,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.074264.3%27 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed MOUZ65c2,465$1,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.757047.1%33 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed OG35c2,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed OG32c1,928$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.845139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed MOUZ68c1,914$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.3423465%152 W · 82 L-1.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8523…1c9fbacked MOUZ65c1,880$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.1610236.3%37 W · 65 L-10.7wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f7d…5769backed MOUZ65c1,751$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.851844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-25.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f7f…472ebacked MOUZ64c1,698$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b6…d8debacked OG36c1,696$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d74…2403backed OG35c1,677$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.1425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-63.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed OG36c1,675$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6005642.9%24 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked OG34c1,481$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.2639936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed OG38c1,321$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked OG35c1,300$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45510941.3%45 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x75c4…4cd0backed OG36c1,250$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aff…c55ebacked MOUZ65c1,234$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.072365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed MOUZ64c1,193$763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.312351.2%63 W · 60 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked OG33c1,061$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.571,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed OG34c1,014$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.5117950.3%90 W · 89 L+14.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb787…ad0abacked OG28c1,010$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.2414446.5%67 W · 77 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae8d…210fbacked MOUZ65c1,003$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.083655.6%20 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed MOUZ64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3607143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed OG33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33022033.6%74 W · 146 L-0.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed MOUZ64c999.98$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.9980443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x040f…e98cbacked MOUZ65c906.92$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.926046.7%28 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-27.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed OG36c901.45$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.2349133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d47…444fbacked MOUZ64c874.55$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.841546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b32…19d9backed OG37c782$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d3…44f9backed MOUZ63c780$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e89…e67abacked MOUZ63c770$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e5…c66cbacked OG37c768$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce0…8d6fbacked MOUZ67c746.63$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.633557.1%20 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9966…f991backed OG10c684.5$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.161428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked MOUZ63c665.54$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.3311855.1%65 W · 53 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed MOUZ65c642.94$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.0346451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1946…e255backed OG35c622.86$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2181361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x02d0…1784backed MOUZ63c619$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa428…1a4cbacked OG37c619$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed MOUZ66c600$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20420642.2%87 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed OG35c570.19$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.0225444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed OG36c560$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.64645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked OG36c555.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020827.9%58 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6155…5db8backed OG35c520$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a43…61d9backed OG36c518$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-35.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed MOUZ65c514.6$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.1113346.6%62 W · 71 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe523…9b1fbacked MOUZ63c501.31$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed OG36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18011253.6%60 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd14a…e912backed OG35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70c…41d5backed OG37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1852623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-25.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed OG35c499.97$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a66…f4c4backed OG37c490$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed MOUZ62c489.16$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.888037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed OG38c447.37$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17060552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x031d…db9dbacked OG46c436.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015653.2%83 W · 73 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x091e…3432backed OG46c436.09$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011452.6%60 W · 54 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b4b…84c9backed OG35c428.43$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.792147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked OG35c426.72$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15014251.4%73 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d6…b2e0backed MOUZ65c418.78$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.574746.8%22 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked OG35c400$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13864123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a9c…7fa0backed OG12c389.97$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.095335.8%19 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-18.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed OG27c370.03$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8616835.7%60 W · 108 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked OG35c360.99$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3512654.8%69 W · 57 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed MOUZ64c324.41$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2719856.1%111 W · 87 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked OG29c318.38$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.078411.9%10 W · 74 L-14.1wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-63.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed MOUZ67c313.43$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.436155.7%34 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa085…8fc2backed MOUZ65c310$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed OG33c301.73$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.448728.7%25 W · 62 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8e5f…7fbfbacked MOUZ65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1054465.9%29 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63b5…1e6fbacked MOUZ64c282$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4c…e430backed OG11c270.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304949%24 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe203…1b53backed OG38c264.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010850%54 W · 54 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed OG35c260$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9131545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed OG36c257.99$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4377941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe46d…2db4backed OG38c249.06$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.45616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-75.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed MOUZ66c242.42$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.425078%39 W · 11 L+7.4wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+20.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa1fa…f3bebacked MOUZ64c237$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1113450.7%68 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe48…5895backed OG37c236.19$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3112147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x03a0…fdbbbacked MOUZ64c236$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e08…3d14backed OG34c235.2$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.83855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa188…3fccbacked MOUZ65c231.91$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.174967.3%33 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed OG35c224$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.456955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa86…7414backed MOUZ65c210$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2021…900cbacked MOUZ63c207$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked MOUZ70c201.77$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0512050.8%61 W · 59 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb4e…5ff1backed MOUZ65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702277.3%17 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick60cpaid+39.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7fac…bdd8backed OG10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013456%75 W · 59 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.