Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02799c70100be2e50bebce8cf27ae3abc4fff6f2678bcc8149327ecb9f132006

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Sunderland AFCof Manchester United FC, Sunderland AFC
Resolved: May 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $49,523
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $51,088

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,523 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Sunderland AFC	78c	17,118$13,356 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,761.29	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc947…3462backed Manchester United FC	24c	6,250$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Manchester United FC	24c	6,089$1,484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,484	125	32.8%41 W · 84 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Sunderland AFC	76c	4,645$3,523 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,122.89	107	65.4%70 W · 37 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7299…31f3backed Manchester United FC	28c	3,892$1,072 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,072.26	112	29.5%33 W · 79 L	-9.8wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Sunderland AFC	74c	2,558$1,892 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$666.18	2,550	47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L	+45.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Sunderland AFC	76c	2,259$1,714 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$544.7	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b4…3111backed Manchester United FC	26c	2,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd538…317cbacked Manchester United FC	23c	1,304$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	221	25.8%57 W · 164 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce2…7e4cbacked Manchester United FC	21c	1,181$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	116	36.2%42 W · 74 L	-5.7wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Manchester United FC	23c	1,100$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.91	87	56.3%49 W · 38 L	+5.8wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Sunderland AFC	75c	1,027$773 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.34	220	49.1%108 W · 112 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc68b…f6eebacked Sunderland AFC	76c	1,010$768 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.4	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.21per pick	50cpaid	+33.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Manchester United FC	26c	999.86$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.96	67	43.3%29 W · 38 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Manchester United FC	15c	912.17$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.46	288	24.7%71 W · 217 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Sunderland AFC	74c	891.94$659 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$232.59	557	51.5%287 W · 270 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b37…17bdbacked Manchester United FC	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	101	25.7%26 W · 75 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Manchester United FC	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Manchester United FC	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Sunderland AFC	74c	608.38$451 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.09	418	50.7%212 W · 206 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Manchester United FC	26c	601$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.26	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-2.8wins	-0.09per pick	24cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33c8…68d7backed Manchester United FC	23c	434.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Manchester United FC	24c	408$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.92	457	51.2%234 W · 223 L	+21.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7eb8…902abacked Manchester United FC	24c	400$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	51	39.2%20 W · 31 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Sunderland AFC	71c	399.99$284 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116	121	57%69 W · 52 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Manchester United FC	24c	392.97$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.31	73	61.6%45 W · 28 L	+4.6wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+12%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4af0…9996backed Manchester United FC	24c	391.92$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.06	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd33a…1fe2backed Manchester United FC	23c	369.57$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Manchester United FC	26c	336.85$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.54	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Manchester United FC	14c	298.65$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.78	141	28.4%40 W · 101 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Sunderland AFC	73c	251.85$184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Sunderland AFC	77c	205$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.15	277	52.3%145 W · 132 L	+8.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Manchester United FC	14c	201.61$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.07	515	16.1%83 W · 432 L	-49.9wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0f4c…f3bfbacked Manchester United FC	24c	200$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Sunderland AFC	75c	194.27$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.57	84	42.9%36 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Manchester United FC	20c	182.6$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.33	578	33%191 W · 387 L	-29.9wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Sunderland AFC	71c	176.87$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.29	131	55%72 W · 59 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Sunderland AFC	73c	174.42$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.09	92	54.3%50 W · 42 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Manchester United FC	7c	164.02$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	226	45.6%103 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Manchester United FC	25c	161.89$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.47	359	41.5%149 W · 210 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Sunderland AFC	76c	145.19$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.17	221	46.2%102 W · 119 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Sunderland AFC	73c	136.99$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.99	288	59.7%172 W · 116 L	+19.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+13%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a50…6c6bbacked Manchester United FC	24c	125$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	-11.4wins	-0.14per pick	46cpaid	-19%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Manchester United FC	21c	107.48$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.44	886	35.8%317 W · 569 L	-13.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2352…4c5abacked Manchester United FC	24c	104.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Manchester United FC	19c	102.06$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.05	365	45.2%165 W · 200 L	-14.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x133a…40b0backed Sunderland AFC	77c	101.3$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.3	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Sunderland AFC	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	300	59.7%179 W · 121 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…d4cebacked Manchester United FC	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.4wins	-0.17per pick	25cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3270…292fbacked Manchester United FC	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8e6…d96bbacked Manchester United FC	15c	99.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	59	32.2%19 W · 40 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Sunderland AFC	73c	98.61$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.63	264	44.7%118 W · 146 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5513…2e2bbacked Manchester United FC	20c	97.7$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed Sunderland AFC	74c	94.59$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.59	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	60cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Manchester United FC	22c	94.36$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.76	408	41.9%171 W · 237 L	-8.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Manchester United FC	29c	94$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.26	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6553…aa3cbacked Sunderland AFC	72c	83.33$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.33	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	66cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Sunderland AFC	75c	81.87$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.87	428	62.4%267 W · 161 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	65cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed Sunderland AFC	77c	77.88$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.91	92	65.2%60 W · 32 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95a2…c5cdbacked Manchester United FC	22c	76.09$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.74	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf53c…a9f3backed Manchester United FC	27c	74.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+5.1wins	+0.24per pick	38cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcdd2…b879backed Manchester United FC	23c	65.22$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Sunderland AFC	76c	64.91$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.37	184	63%116 W · 68 L	+10.0wins	+0.05per pick	58cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd00d…9817backed Manchester United FC	24c	62.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	61cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Manchester United FC	19c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	43	25.6%11 W · 32 L	-5.8wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4436…cf98backed Manchester United FC	27c	54.93$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.83	46	60.9%28 W · 18 L	+4.5wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5f3…bf7cbacked Manchester United FC	24c	47.92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.27per pick	43cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Manchester United FC	24c	47$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.28	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	-6.1wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Sunderland AFC	77c	44.13$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.11	245	57.6%141 W · 104 L	+13.3wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Manchester United FC	25c	42.23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	125	62.4%78 W · 47 L	+8.6wins	+0.07per pick	55cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Sunderland AFC	76c	40.92$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.93	220	57.7%127 W · 93 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b0…b71fbacked Manchester United FC	26c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	170	17.6%30 W · 140 L	-27.5wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-60.6%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x145d…8a74backed Sunderland AFC	77c	32.47$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.47	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Sunderland AFC	71c	32$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.28	815	59%481 W · 334 L	+32.5wins	+0.04per pick	55cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Sunderland AFC	73c	23.28$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.29	212	50.9%108 W · 104 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Sunderland AFC	75c	18.79$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.78	183	58.5%107 W · 76 L	+7.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Sunderland AFC	75c	16.68$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.1	106	55.7%59 W · 47 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa940…2feabacked Sunderland AFC	78c	12.87$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.83	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)this page
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)Sunderland AFC won
Spread: Sunderland AFC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
Spread: Sunderland AFC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5Under won
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event