Premier League · resolved market
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f3cbaed3478809811332c6b1a802c1a743f734432d78c88e535d4006bfe6699
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 33c | 2,748$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907 | 136 | 30.9%42 W · 94 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 8c | 1,563$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 75c | 1,245$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.67 | 914 | 35.3%323 W · 591 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 1,018$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.17 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Over | 16c | 800$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 139 | 21.6%30 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 67c | 652.98$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.48 | 359 | 41.5%149 W · 210 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 34c | 350$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed Under | 67c | 328.36$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56d…c484backed Under | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 19c | 298.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 141 | 28.4%40 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Over | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 33c | 227.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 354 | 28.5%101 W · 253 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 67c | 223.3$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 337 | 51.3%173 W · 164 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218d…83f8backed Over | 34c | 204.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 306 | 45.8%140 W · 166 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Under | 68c | 184.92$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 67c | 171.74$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 598 | 47.7%285 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 33c | 170.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 79c | 169.25$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 724 | 42.7%309 W · 415 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 33c | 150.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 33c | 130.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 418 | 50.7%212 W · 206 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219a…a647backed Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 67c | 105.26$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Under | 67c | 101.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Under | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 18c | 89.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Over | 34c | 82.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c3…443ebacked Under | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 67c | 67.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 33c | 61.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 74c | 55.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 67c | 50.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 264 | 44.7%118 W · 146 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 67c | 44.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 562 | 41.5%233 W · 329 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 78c | 40.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf226…9c0fbacked Over | 33c | 39.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 67c | 35.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 105 | 34.3%36 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 212 | 50.9%108 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed Under | 68c | 23.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8b…9ac5backed Under | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked Under | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…2ebbbacked Under | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…47abbacked Under | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)Sunderland AFC won
- Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)Sunderland AFC won
- Spread: Sunderland AFC (-1.5)Manchester United FC won
- Spread: Sunderland AFC (-2.5)Manchester United FC won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.