TailMyPicks
Market

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: OG vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
OGof OG, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,764
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,304

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,764 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4337…8882backed Virtus.pro15c10,675$1,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.7216842.9%72 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29f9…e310backed Virtus.pro36c10,171$3,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,633.1712256.6%69 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Virtus.pro48c6,240$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00053451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Virtus.pro19c3,850$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.1934146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked OG64c3,003$1,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.2528159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a65…9e1cbacked Virtus.pro1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked OG61c3,000$1,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.9389749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Virtus.pro11c2,746$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.2919047.9%91 W · 99 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked OG58c2,271$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.6120159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x48e4…c99ebacked Virtus.pro2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Virtus.pro15c1,696$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.8973841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb30…302abacked OG61c1,639$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.3410451%53 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bd5…81b0backed Virtus.pro22c1,445$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.037630.3%23 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Virtus.pro36c1,435$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.6385851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Virtus.pro17c1,416$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.711,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked OG54c1,372$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.22,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf457…d1a6backed OG75c1,356$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.1312459.7%74 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Virtus.pro35c1,299$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.6839936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed OG75c1,201$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.6323465%152 W · 82 L-1.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea61…cc32backed Virtus.pro10c999.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007549.3%37 W · 38 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed Virtus.pro36c927.33$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.8428341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Virtus.pro36c916.48$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.7712351.2%63 W · 60 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked Virtus.pro32c894.5$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.241850%9 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed OG68c894.5$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.2453652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed OG52c854.28$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.0314947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Virtus.pro12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012050.8%61 W · 59 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ab…eb07backed Virtus.pro10c791.06$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.277846.2%36 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked OG65c790.22$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.88046.3%37 W · 43 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked OG50c777.82$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.9133850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Virtus.pro41c663.79$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27519743.1%85 W · 112 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked OG67c650.69$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.621,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9be…8b35backed Virtus.pro39c634.38$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2508349.4%41 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa2…0006backed Virtus.pro6c568.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9950%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed OG67c507.66$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.1754445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e32…6e95backed Virtus.pro8c504.58$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.164717%8 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Virtus.pro33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16589440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Virtus.pro11c500$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.363032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Virtus.pro40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Virtus.pro44c459.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9820556.1%115 W · 90 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x031d…db9dbacked OG67c449.99$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.515653.2%83 W · 73 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ffc…8967backed Virtus.pro15c448$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9622033.6%74 W · 146 L-0.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Virtus.pro47c426.61$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20053844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…1e5bbacked OG75c400.49$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.5118649.5%92 W · 94 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f04…5fc4backed OG57c360.06$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.8331545.4%143 W · 172 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Virtus.pro13c354.66$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9570236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd6d…9148backed Virtus.pro9c340.68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.271513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ee…83b0backed OG61c329.07$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.8415742%66 W · 91 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x38e3…e46dbacked Virtus.pro8c325.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.053826.3%10 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-43.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Virtus.pro13c307.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.127244.4%32 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed OG62c299.99$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11411647.4%55 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Virtus.pro8c280$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.721,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked Virtus.pro33c270.38$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2321350.7%108 W · 105 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed OG60c259.38$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.7549133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked OG75c246.43$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.6116665.7%109 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef35…c333backed OG62c229.98$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.587460.8%45 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Virtus.pro12c208.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1e…c2eabacked OG72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.724540%18 W · 27 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Virtus.pro20c200$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.598845.5%40 W · 48 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cf3…50d9backed Virtus.pro20c190$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387936.7%29 W · 50 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x39a9…c69ebacked Virtus.pro8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101711.8%2 W · 15 L-4.2wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-73%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb358…122cbacked OG59c124.3$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.45635.7%20 W · 36 L-10.2wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-39.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x2bdf…56f5backed Virtus.pro18c120$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+37.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb26c…46ddbacked Virtus.pro25c101.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.758239%32 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf8c…4bc2backed Virtus.pro10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x395c…ad6fbacked OG59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Virtus.pro22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2264123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb82b…3a09backed Virtus.pro36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3614948.3%72 W · 77 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67c3…0e36backed OG73c95.89$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8912965.1%84 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56e6…e99bbacked Virtus.pro38c92.11$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe32c…db1bbacked Virtus.pro27c89.77$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.832334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d54…8d9abacked OG67c82.18$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.186462.5%40 W · 24 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Virtus.pro33c76.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1260542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Virtus.pro41c72.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3072637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd2dd…ea96backed OG61c65.68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.43948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Virtus.pro34c56.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.064654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ab…f5c1backed OG62c50.51$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1913157.3%75 W · 56 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x476b…8a58backed OG57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.57157.7%41 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked OG65c46.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.154037.5%15 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb6b…604ebacked OG53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.839351.1%201 W · 192 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Virtus.pro33c39.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1933945.1%153 W · 186 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe286…6896backed Virtus.pro36c34.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.533444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Virtus.pro35c34.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d1…7531backed Virtus.pro44c34.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x693c…a7edbacked OG60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.333852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed Virtus.pro45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159555.8%53 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9235…3fbdbacked OG65c31.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9215167.5%102 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4218…8b6cbacked OG67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1011945.4%54 W · 65 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked Virtus.pro37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.119943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcda0…a51abacked OG66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.88361.4%51 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.