NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Thunder
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x035a75b4147af460785f25a220b3452baad82abe5c21ee287b393017dcc7f5b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Wizards, Thunder
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $150,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3526…3dfabacked Wizards | 0c | 10,972$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…1698backed Wizards | 7c | 10,730$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.09 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Wizards | 7c | 7,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Wizards | 1c | 6,388$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.36 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed Wizards | 10c | 6,006$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.91 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards | 11c | 5,928$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.23 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…cafebacked Wizards | 12c | 4,708$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.02 | 297 | 38.7%115 W · 182 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Wizards | 6c | 4,546$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.76 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…c4c8backed Wizards | 7c | 3,607$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.65 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cb…001bbacked Wizards | 8c | 3,438$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked Wizards | 7c | 2,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed Wizards | 6c | 2,178$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.65 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…5241backed Wizards | 14c | 2,172$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.14 | 153 | 41.8%64 W · 89 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…9828backed Wizards | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Wizards | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Wizards | 4c | 1,715$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 217 | 23.5%51 W · 166 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Wizards | 7c | 1,591$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.37 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | +18.8wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c27…c8b4backed Wizards | 4c | 1,548$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 171 | 41.5%71 W · 100 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…6440backed Wizards | 6c | 1,455$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 469 | 28.4%133 W · 336 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Wizards | 15c | 1,304$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e239backed Wizards | 12c | 1,224$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.48 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Wizards | 12c | 1,191$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.89 | 1,316 | 50.5%664 W · 652 L | +42.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Wizards | 1c | 1,186$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Wizards | 2c | 1,099$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 234 | 38.9%91 W · 143 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…64eebacked Wizards | 10c | 1,082$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a5…2da4backed Wizards | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Wizards | 8c | 999.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 753 | 47.5%358 W · 395 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Wizards | 13c | 800.13$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.18 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x893d…6b68backed Wizards | 11c | 781.73$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…4d52backed Wizards | 2c | 740.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…83d2backed Wizards | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…e197backed Wizards | 8c | 611.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ac…b899backed Wizards | 7c | 611.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…8b56backed Wizards | 8c | 597.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +26%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Wizards | 8c | 509.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 723 | 41.2%298 W · 425 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Wizards | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Wizards | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed Wizards | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +13.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Wizards | 11c | 475.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 451 | 35%158 W · 293 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…21d8backed Wizards | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f0…95a0backed Wizards | 6c | 368$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +242%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Wizards | 7c | 333$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ec…1af7backed Wizards | 7c | 308.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Wizards | 11c | 302.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Wizards | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 141 | 29.1%41 W · 100 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Wizards | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 750 | 2%15 W · 735 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Wizards | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…140abacked Wizards | 11c | 273$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Wizards | 10c | 239.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 303 | 31.4%95 W · 208 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…a39cbacked Wizards | 7c | 215.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 657 | 26%171 W · 486 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Wizards | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 227 | 21.6%49 W · 178 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf016…52babacked Wizards | 8c | 191.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc1…06edbacked Wizards | 11c | 191.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 883 | 35.3%312 W · 571 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…bb32backed Wizards | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Wizards | 15c | 170$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 709 | 51.3%364 W · 345 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…261fbacked Wizards | 17c | 155.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 174 | 20.1%35 W · 139 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e14…a1bebacked Wizards | 7c | 148$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e0…2ad4backed Wizards | 7c | 144.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…d9dfbacked Wizards | 8c | 131.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…4020backed Wizards | 8c | 127.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…e95cbacked Wizards | 8c | 127.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…e787backed Wizards | 8c | 127.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc069…0ffebacked Wizards | 8c | 127.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…39ccbacked Wizards | 8c | 127.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Wizards | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…74f3backed Wizards | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 259 | 57.5%149 W · 110 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…316dbacked Wizards | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25de…794bbacked Wizards | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde7…21bbbacked Wizards | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…6422backed Wizards | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ea…969bbacked Wizards | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.