TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,684
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,705

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,684 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Under50c4,011$2,005 inLost-$2,005.492,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Over50c2,982$1,491 inWon+$1,490.8652460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over67c748.6$498 inWon+$250.378,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over37c300$111 inWon+$18984342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd164…f17bbacked Under68c295.29$200 inLost-$2005156.9%29 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over45c286$129 inWon+$157.23,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over36c259.99$94 inWon+$166.443,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…14d9backed Over41c242.01$100 inWon+$142.0113946.8%65 W · 74 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Under32c206.61$67 inLost-$66.7527144.3%120 W · 151 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7a4…0ea6backed Under55c200$110 inLost-$1107241.7%30 W · 42 L-6.8wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over50c117$59 inWon+$58.52,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Over34c113.77$39 inWon+$74.7431144.4%138 W · 173 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under58c111.61$65 inLost-$65.114,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed Over35c100$35 inWon+$6514127.7%39 W · 102 L-16.4wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-26.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over41c84.75$35 inWon+$509,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Under59c84.75$50 inLost-$5061056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under62c64.65$40 inLost-$402,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Over32c62.5$20 inWon+$42.523438.9%91 W · 143 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under54c50.2$27 inLost-$27.211,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over37c44$16 inWon+$27.722,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Under53c43$23 inLost-$22.981,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c3…f427backed Under51c31.27$16 inLost-$16.111546.1%53 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4ed…1795backed Under64c31$20 inLost-$19.841050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4662…807ebacked Over50c27.84$14 inWon+$13.92450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under63c19$12 inLost-$11.9785147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.