NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa68baad133aee1007101266125d02f086cdc4bb04eef6afa055f81e8b0348194
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 8,231$4,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,001.02 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x421e…4d4dbacked Over | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…72b0backed Under | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over | 51c | 6,228$3,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,066.1 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 1,877$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.09 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 1,592$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.16 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 356.44$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.09 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 54c | 212$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 54c | 137$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 53c | 127$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 54c | 116$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 54c | 112.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 46c | 87.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3620…2e6cbacked Over | 52c | 77.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Over | 46c | 71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Over | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 210 | 56.2%118 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Under | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 54c | 69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 52c | 59.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 54c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 185 | 49.2%91 W · 94 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…47a4backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Over | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed Over | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Over | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Over | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Over | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Under | 49c | 30.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -12.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Over | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…2894backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…6febbacked Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Over | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c5…4997backed Over | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5this page
- Raptors vs. WizardsWizards won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 224.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 225.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.