NBA · resolved market
Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x906f14f80cff25cc48937add39f5bfcedb22b0fb36fd999e4d85eee0ce5d40d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 8,460$4,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,338.88 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 3,990$1,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,143.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 44c | 2,344$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.12 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 2,010$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.26 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Under | 61c | 824.2$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -11.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc23…a56ebacked Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -26%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 46c | 360.8$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.83 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 44c | 237$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.86 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 47c | 227.39$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 39c | 164.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.26 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 30c | 156$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 16c | 135.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over | 47c | 127.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 124.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 56c | 115$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 41c | 106.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 59c | 97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 41c | 95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 50c | 77.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Under | 58c | 73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 56c | 66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 57c | 61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 47c | 56.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 55c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Under | 57c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 58c | 42.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Over | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Under | 60c | 33.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Over | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Over | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Under | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 57c | 26.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…7544backed Over | 46c | 24.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…d6bdbacked Over | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 271 | 44.3%120 W · 151 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5this page
- Raptors vs. WizardsWizards won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 224.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 225.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.