NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2374bb0af9fa5eaea651cdec6915b45599e1e8a0843c07e05e26c5301781d1e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Raptors, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Raptors | 57c | 6,134$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 43c | 5,262$2,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,977.7 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Raptors | 43c | 2,273$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.34 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 56c | 2,260$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.3 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Wizards | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Raptors | 54c | 966.39$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Wizards | 78c | 328.21$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Raptors | 22c | 328.21$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Wizards | 48c | 312.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.9 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…244cbacked Raptors | 54c | 279.26$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -11.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Raptors | 56c | 275$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Wizards | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 126 | 50%63 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Raptors | 53c | 210$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Wizards | 49c | 203.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Wizards | 57c | 201.75$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.75 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wizards | 44c | 194.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Raptors | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Raptors | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Wizards | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e10…6a89backed Raptors | 58c | 83.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Raptors | 42c | 83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Raptors | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9f…c2a6backed Raptors | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Raptors | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Raptors | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 291 | 56.4%164 W · 127 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Raptors | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Wizards | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 185 | 49.2%91 W · 94 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004c…7052backed Raptors | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Wizards | 42c | 35.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Wizards | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Wizards | 49c | 34.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Wizards | 47c | 30.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wizards | 44c | 25.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Raptors | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Raptors | 56c | 23.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Wizards | 57c | 18.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)this page
- Raptors vs. WizardsWizards won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 224.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 225.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.