NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafac7c1e5582c9648a681d08cc6058a74e3e3d715f39992cd6f4da7f130b169e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Raptors, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6576…6cc5backed Wizards | 56c | 11,000$6,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,840 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc984…2d4bbacked Raptors | 44c | 11,000$4,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,840 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 42c | 1,336$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.84 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Wizards | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Wizards | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors | 43c | 396.2$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.37 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Wizards | 56c | 333.72$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.84 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Wizards | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 185 | 56.8%105 W · 80 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Raptors | 44c | 251.74$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Raptors | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Raptors | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Wizards | 56c | 165$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Wizards | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Wizards | 59c | 135$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Raptors | 44c | 119.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Raptors | 43c | 97.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Wizards | 59c | 93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Wizards | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46df…b057backed Wizards | 58c | 85.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 211 | 64.5%136 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Raptors | 42c | 85.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards | 54c | 84.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Wizards | 57c | 84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 43c | 76.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Wizards | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Raptors | 44c | 64.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Wizards | 59c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Wizards | 59c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Raptors | 43c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Wizards | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 185 | 49.2%91 W · 94 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Raptors | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Raptors | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Raptors | 41c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Raptors | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Wizards | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Raptors | 41c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Raptors | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…c558backed Wizards | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Wizards | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Raptors | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Raptors | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Raptors | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Raptors | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Raptors | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Raptors | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Raptors | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Raptors | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Raptors | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Wizards | 56c | 26.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Raptors | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Raptors | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Wizards | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Raptors | 45c | 23.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)this page
- Raptors vs. WizardsWizards won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 224.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 225.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.