NBA · resolved market
Spread: Raptors (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87c5afb96d9d4e8ce2d7868d7ca2025583950a3125ccbac949bd3a584ef22e22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Raptors, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Wizards | 52c | 10,000$5,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,850 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Raptors | 48c | 7,993$3,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,836.64 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors | 49c | 5,442$2,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,666.44 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Raptors | 48c | 4,925$2,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,358.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Wizards | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 59c | 2,578$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Raptors | 47c | 1,847$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.18 | 214 | 46.7%100 W · 114 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Raptors | 27c | 1,059$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.49 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…2178backed Raptors | 48c | 880$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…59fabacked Raptors | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Wizards | 51c | 644.38$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.03 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Raptors | 50c | 398.28$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa477…f0c9backed Wizards | 52c | 350$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176c…2858backed Wizards | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Wizards | 52c | 286.72$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.63 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Raptors | 48c | 286.72$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.63 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa023…48a5backed Wizards | 52c | 230$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Wizards | 51c | 201.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Wizards | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Raptors | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Raptors | 48c | 181$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Wizards | 49c | 150$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 271 | 44.3%120 W · 151 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Wizards | 56c | 132$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Wizards | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Wizards | 55c | 122$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Wizards | 56c | 115$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Wizards | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Raptors | 48c | 103.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Wizards | 56c | 102$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Wizards | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Wizards | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Wizards | 53c | 98.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Raptors | 48c | 89.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Wizards | 53c | 82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Wizards | 50c | 82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Wizards | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…74cfbacked Wizards | 55c | 79.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Wizards | 49c | 77.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Wizards | 52c | 73.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Wizards | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Wizards | 52c | 71.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Raptors | 44c | 71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Wizards | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Wizards | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Wizards | 55c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Wizards | 68c | 50.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Raptors | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Wizards | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 185 | 49.2%91 W · 94 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Raptors | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…4de3backed Raptors | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Raptors | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Raptors | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Raptors | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Wizards | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Raptors | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Raptors | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Raptors | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked Raptors | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Wizards | 51c | 32.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Raptors | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Raptors | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Raptors | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed Raptors | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Raptors | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Raptors | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…d7b0backed Raptors | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Raptors | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Raptors | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Wizards | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Raptors | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Wizards | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Raptors (-8.5)this page
- Raptors vs. WizardsWizards won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineWizards won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 224.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 225.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5Over won
- Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Raptors (-6.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Raptors (-9.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.