TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Euroleague · resolved market

Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Shanghai Sharksof Beijing Ducks, Shanghai Sharks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$165,911
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$190,478

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,911 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7120…7c4ebacked Beijing Ducks10c28,064$2,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,936.736116.4%10 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-60.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Beijing Ducks6c14,772$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.8113046.2%60 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0de…8048backed Shanghai Sharks55c12,557$6,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,588.721662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Beijing Ducks48c10,043$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8005360.4%32 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Beijing Ducks4c4,455$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.193345.5%15 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Beijing Ducks46c4,060$1,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,878.546338.1%24 W · 39 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa62a…f05bbacked Shanghai Sharks51c3,855$1,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,898.44683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd23…387ebacked Beijing Ducks48c3,343$1,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,614.13063.3%19 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Beijing Ducks8c2,832$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.183737.8%14 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+45.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc229…dbeabacked Beijing Ducks51c1,963$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid+12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Beijing Ducks42c1,952$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.1754251.5%279 W · 263 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb046…00bcbacked Shanghai Sharks53c1,933$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.73100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+53.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78a8…0753backed Beijing Ducks47c1,707$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked Shanghai Sharks56c1,658$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.45933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Beijing Ducks46c1,655$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.994344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ae5…6079backed Beijing Ducks49c1,620$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.191464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Beijing Ducks46c1,387$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+53.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775c…f276backed Beijing Ducks8c1,265$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Shanghai Sharks51c1,165$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.9821444.4%95 W · 119 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Shanghai Sharks55c1,085$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.514443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Shanghai Sharks55c1,036$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.4126935.3%95 W · 174 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Shanghai Sharks55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.053855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf0…8b2bbacked Beijing Ducks33c999.99$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Beijing Ducks38c999.98$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.992842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb8c…6a99backed Beijing Ducks42c956.93$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd508…0009backed Beijing Ducks45c918.96$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Beijing Ducks29c899$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.5737052.7%195 W · 175 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Beijing Ducks1c860$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.760%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Beijing Ducks43c813.95$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3507138%27 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Shanghai Sharks53c754.71$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.715230.8%16 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f0b…5577backed Beijing Ducks47c726.96$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4068…aeb1backed Beijing Ducks43c722.42$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.642030%6 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Shanghai Sharks54c699.99$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3202737%10 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c07…4529backed Shanghai Sharks50c697$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+34.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Beijing Ducks22c681.82$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d15…8026backed Beijing Ducks44c678.36$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001163.6%7 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Beijing Ducks47c651.96$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.421844.4%8 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+71%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Shanghai Sharks67c650.15$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.336747.8%32 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd746…1b6dbacked Shanghai Sharks55c650$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.52568%17 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+43.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x98be…ce69backed Beijing Ducks47c630.96$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.551450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Beijing Ducks43c629.79$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.5224430.3%74 W · 170 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bd…ed47backed Beijing Ducks49c600.73$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.362646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid+70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Shanghai Sharks56c560.16$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.1134344.3%152 W · 191 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf99…74babacked Shanghai Sharks54c555.65$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.651040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc5b…5443backed Shanghai Sharks54c555.56$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.56785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+31.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8476…dc8dbacked Shanghai Sharks53c553.72$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9333…4100backed Shanghai Sharks54c537.04$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d16…821abacked Shanghai Sharks54c536.58$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.411656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f7a…719bbacked Beijing Ducks16c500.28$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.01520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Beijing Ducks46c499.99$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2302133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Shanghai Sharks53c491.65$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.076162.3%38 W · 23 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Beijing Ducks2c487.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9636939.8%147 W · 222 L+1.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Beijing Ducks3c451.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.292927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-61%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Beijing Ducks4c408.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.33616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-70.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde6…764bbacked Shanghai Sharks54c406.15$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.833060%18 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2c2…e9bfbacked Beijing Ducks49c404.04$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x817c…0817backed Beijing Ducks4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+20.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Beijing Ducks45c374.42$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.225752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Beijing Ducks23c342.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1135234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd697…6cd3backed Beijing Ducks28c336.57$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa0c5…e717backed Shanghai Sharks53c311.11$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e8a…a5bcbacked Beijing Ducks50c310.11$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.121030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f0c…160cbacked Beijing Ducks47c308.51$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1451553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Beijing Ducks48c300$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1442653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Beijing Ducks42c285$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd19…3f54backed Shanghai Sharks51c283.14$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Beijing Ducks39c279.99$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.21662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Shanghai Sharks56c269.99$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.894045%18 W · 22 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Shanghai Sharks54c267$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.827462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Beijing Ducks47c254.12$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.171643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xceca…4800backed Beijing Ducks51c237.36$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.171241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a15…e238backed Shanghai Sharks53c224.67$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.671450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Beijing Ducks24c211.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3321535.8%77 W · 138 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d29…f683backed Shanghai Sharks53c209$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.81656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd005…6615backed Beijing Ducks48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Shanghai Sharks53c199.66$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.841338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5839…3fa8backed Shanghai Sharks51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Beijing Ducks48c190.1$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.751353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ff…d56cbacked Shanghai Sharks53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.683050%15 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Shanghai Sharks71c181.61$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.822157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad31…1c1dbacked Shanghai Sharks57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.44771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa177…4b0dbacked Beijing Ducks17c174$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.681216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-60.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Shanghai Sharks52c168.59$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.113743.2%16 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Shanghai Sharks69c158.86$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.435248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f46…85c0backed Shanghai Sharks53c156.6$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Shanghai Sharks69c155.19$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.989551.6%49 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Beijing Ducks31c149.88$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.15152.9%27 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x499a…a047backed Beijing Ducks47c149$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.29520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Beijing Ducks15c141$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.514443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bdc…3a4ebacked Beijing Ducks38c140$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Shanghai Sharks71c129.61$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.274452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd93d…27a0backed Beijing Ducks48c124.61$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.742030%6 W · 14 L-4.7wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-42.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x88a2…68a0backed Beijing Ducks35c110$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…32a7backed Shanghai Sharks61c108.77$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.77977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc313…e128backed Shanghai Sharks50c108$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Shanghai Sharks56c107.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.663148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x456a…6a90backed Shanghai Sharks61c105$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.951258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5968…96f0backed Beijing Ducks48c101.56$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.751275%9 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2691…6c3cbacked Beijing Ducks10c101.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Beijing Ducks28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2813220.5%27 W · 105 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.