Mls · resolved market
Will Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x049597bb8b0feb9eab737afe09a34c9270640a2050e525301a0d175d8486f341
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 24c | 12,999$3,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,905.94 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 5,974$4,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,548.39 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 2,595$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.65 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 68c | 971.92$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.53 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 77c | 649$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.73 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…36ddbacked No | 78c | 500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 61c | 482$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.82 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 35c | 426.13$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.99 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 38c | 400$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.47 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 76c | 392$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.92 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 74c | 388.51$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.7 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 76c | 374.81$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.86 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 24c | 313.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.32 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 78c | 301$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.78 | 328 | 48.8%160 W · 168 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 72c | 258$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.28 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 77c | 256.35$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.39 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 211.38$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.76 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 76c | 167$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.92 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked No | 75c | 151.73$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked No | 7c | 150.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Yes | 34c | 142.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.03 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 76c | 139.15$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 76c | 139.13$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.74 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 22c | 135.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.44 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked Yes | 23c | 130.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +335.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Yes | 23c | 125$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 78c | 92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 76c | 89.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 80c | 76.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 22c | 76.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 33c | 75.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.97 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 62c | 72.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 71.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 78c | 71.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 56c | 68.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 36c | 67.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 76c | 65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed No | 78c | 62.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…0000backed No | 77c | 62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…6b66backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked No | 78c | 59.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed Yes | 22c | 59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 66c | 57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 57c | 36.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 59c | 33.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 42c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 77c | 27.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Yes | 72c | 27.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 25.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 77c | 22.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf548…c20ebacked No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed No | 76c | 17.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed No | 79c | 17.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea88…261abacked No | 76c | 16.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed No | 78c | 13.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Orlando City SC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-08-15?No won
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-08-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.