TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Lincoln: Colton Smith vs Hayato Matsuoka

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Colton Smithof Colton Smith, Hayato Matsuoka
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$144,074
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$160,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,074 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f65…2036backed Hayato Matsuoka33c57,692$19,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,175.9775640.1%303 W · 453 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Colton Smith67c43,644$29,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,402.081,21746.3%563 W · 654 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Hayato Matsuoka17c7,632$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.878,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Colton Smith72c4,146$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.8931653.2%168 W · 148 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Colton Smith75c2,856$2,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.833,15557.2%1,806 W · 1,349 L+176.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe081…0bf5backed Hayato Matsuoka11c2,187$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.058123.5%19 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94d4…d869backed Colton Smith24c2,000$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.0310246.1%47 W · 55 L+10.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+51.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Hayato Matsuoka19c1,982$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.631,88344.8%843 W · 1,040 L+36.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Hayato Matsuoka19c1,981$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.455941.3%231 W · 328 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Hayato Matsuoka77c1,941$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.733,31948.4%1,605 W · 1,714 L-52.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ace…c46ebacked Hayato Matsuoka11c1,740$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20028221.6%61 W · 221 L+0.6wins0.00per pick21cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Hayato Matsuoka16c1,706$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.994,97538.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L-19.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1a…9bacbacked Hayato Matsuoka21c1,436$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Hayato Matsuoka22c1,346$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.717933%59 W · 120 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Colton Smith78c1,305$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.379,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Hayato Matsuoka19c1,207$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.711,88145.7%860 W · 1,021 L+51.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Colton Smith74c1,200$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.392,32652.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L+85.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Hayato Matsuoka19c1,053$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005,32528.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L-21.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Colton Smith70c997$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.656,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Hayato Matsuoka17c861.24$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.291,57939.8%629 W · 950 L-34.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b10…2e23backed Hayato Matsuoka23c818.91$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1861154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Hayato Matsuoka14c800$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1129,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Hayato Matsuoka5c787$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.631,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a14…9fe4backed Hayato Matsuoka10c776.52$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9741535.4%147 W · 268 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hayato Matsuoka11c730.57$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.968,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc12e…7c8abacked Hayato Matsuoka9c687.28$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657524%18 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+36.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked Colton Smith78c637.75$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7527351.3%140 W · 133 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9b2…9c8dbacked Hayato Matsuoka9c554.64$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5410927.5%30 W · 79 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa1…1ea8backed Hayato Matsuoka23c483$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5628031.8%89 W · 191 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0418…8159backed Hayato Matsuoka29c459.07$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.352330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Hayato Matsuoka30c432$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.751,63252.7%860 W · 772 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Hayato Matsuoka19c430.86$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.622,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Hayato Matsuoka13c417.13$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.234,65048.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L+31.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Hayato Matsuoka20c408.74$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.76,79236.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…3c88backed Colton Smith79c380.71$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7119051.6%98 W · 92 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2180…df40backed Hayato Matsuoka7c379.26$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267048.6%34 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Colton Smith79c257.59$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0965949.3%325 W · 334 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Colton Smith77c252.66$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.941,96043.8%858 W · 1,102 L-20.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Hayato Matsuoka19c248.94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc19…31c4backed Hayato Matsuoka20c202.06$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2432546.2%150 W · 175 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2be…af12backed Colton Smith78c201.81$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.652,03246.9%952 W · 1,080 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Colton Smith69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5867…2e20backed Hayato Matsuoka29c198.87$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5724839.9%99 W · 149 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7c5…99d8backed Hayato Matsuoka17c186.05$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3212853.9%69 W · 59 L+0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbae1…a7b6backed Hayato Matsuoka10c185.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.768732.2%28 W · 59 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4acf…1179backed Hayato Matsuoka28c173.71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.96714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick53cpaid-79.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x67a1…1c91backed Colton Smith65c153.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8420360.1%122 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fb…74f3backed Hayato Matsuoka9c139.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6915630.1%47 W · 109 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Colton Smith78c136.4$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.676,57446.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L-45.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed Hayato Matsuoka19c126.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.510158.4%59 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dc4…4870backed Hayato Matsuoka19c122.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2216051.3%82 W · 78 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd1…f311backed Hayato Matsuoka21c115.65$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2425551%130 W · 125 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Hayato Matsuoka24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.961,73052.2%903 W · 827 L-8.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Colton Smith71c97.54$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.12,86849.5%1,419 W · 1,449 L+23.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…206cbacked Hayato Matsuoka21c74.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6985637.7%323 W · 533 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fc5…d36ebacked Hayato Matsuoka30c73.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9918444.6%82 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Hayato Matsuoka24c70$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9592352.5%485 W · 438 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Hayato Matsuoka24c69.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.472,08952.2%1,090 W · 999 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Hayato Matsuoka28c68.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4573951.7%382 W · 357 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9575…cd83backed Hayato Matsuoka31c64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7822046.8%103 W · 117 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4301…ac39backed Hayato Matsuoka34c59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019041.6%79 W · 111 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Colton Smith80c57$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5190152.3%471 W · 430 L-2.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Hayato Matsuoka28c56.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.161,17952.8%623 W · 556 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2262…21a1backed Colton Smith71c55.68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0876355.6%424 W · 339 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hayato Matsuoka25c55.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0511,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Hayato Matsuoka25c52.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2939451.3%202 W · 192 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Colton Smith75c51.54$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.681,62949%798 W · 831 L-51.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Hayato Matsuoka26c51.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.131,34949.8%672 W · 677 L-6.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Hayato Matsuoka32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.930132.9%99 W · 202 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b1…7cf8backed Colton Smith75c49.49$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.423461.8%21 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3036…15c2backed Colton Smith77c45.71$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.715662.5%35 W · 21 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e9f…6561backed Hayato Matsuoka23c43.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104325.6%11 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Colton Smith79c43.14$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.991,00843.8%442 W · 566 L-2.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Hayato Matsuoka29c42.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3526746.1%123 W · 144 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x074c…771cbacked Colton Smith73c41.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.259361.3%57 W · 36 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Hayato Matsuoka25c41.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3439751.4%204 W · 193 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x166f…632abacked Hayato Matsuoka26c40.13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.411437.7%43 W · 71 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Colton Smith73c39.51$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.512,33946.6%1,090 W · 1,249 L+55.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Colton Smith76c39.26$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2659050.5%298 W · 292 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b6…886ebacked Hayato Matsuoka28c39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1117860.1%107 W · 71 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04e2…38febacked Colton Smith79c38.85$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.162272.7%16 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0df0…1376backed Colton Smith79c37.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9710648.1%51 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef1…5acabacked Colton Smith80c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,79460.2%1,080 W · 714 L+6.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c0b…c814backed Colton Smith78c34.9$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7840659.9%243 W · 163 L+30.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+16.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0977…53ccbacked Colton Smith79c30.83$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4122547.1%106 W · 119 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Colton Smith79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2519064.7%123 W · 67 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b89…9183backed Colton Smith79c27.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8420566.8%137 W · 68 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…c3d9backed Colton Smith68c26.9$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6150268.3%343 W · 159 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a2…0532backed Colton Smith80c25.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1120771%147 W · 60 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4228…b838backed Colton Smith79c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.24158.5%24 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c76…6e88backed Colton Smith75c21.19$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.242356.5%13 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick70cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9888…e6febacked Colton Smith73c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.692,44745.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x880b…4f34backed Colton Smith78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.42458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7734…017dbacked Colton Smith79c16.45$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4714560%87 W · 58 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.