Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04acd6594712c61564811cbc9342d015512c0ee52107b68711e98ff173469402
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac0d…b006backed MOUZ | 48c | 35,899$17,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,780.07 | 106 | 61.3%65 W · 41 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked MOUZ | 76c | 14,246$10,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,451.48 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Heroic | 18c | 12,014$2,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,152.8 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…2df0backed Heroic | 50c | 10,710$5,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,383 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Heroic | 44c | 10,000$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,400 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed MOUZ | 68c | 8,632$5,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,766.16 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Heroic | 31c | 6,569$2,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041.72 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdb…4d30backed Heroic | 53c | 5,674$3,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,006.4 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Heroic | 53c | 4,674$2,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,468.21 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Heroic | 29c | 3,840$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.59 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heroic | 27c | 2,668$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.44 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a5…de1bbacked Heroic | 52c | 1,940$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Heroic | 5c | 1,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…51ebbacked Heroic | 16c | 1,366$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…99e1backed MOUZ | 56c | 1,256$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.64 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked MOUZ | 47c | 1,100$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.99 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed MOUZ | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Heroic | 45c | 1,046$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.29 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed MOUZ | 48c | 925$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked MOUZ | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked MOUZ | 55c | 761.13$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.51 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed Heroic | 44c | 754.04$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.78 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Heroic | 30c | 726.86$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.6 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed MOUZ | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed MOUZ | 70c | 572$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.32 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Heroic | 53c | 570.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed MOUZ | 54c | 558.14$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.68 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Heroic | 31c | 500$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed MOUZ | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked Heroic | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked MOUZ | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Heroic | 54c | 370.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Heroic | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed MOUZ | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Heroic | 28c | 300$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed MOUZ | 69c | 273.72$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed MOUZ | 63c | 259.17$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.79 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8e…b1c7backed MOUZ | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed MOUZ | 48c | 249.17$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.57 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…5473backed Heroic | 8c | 218.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…42c4backed Heroic | 34c | 206.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed MOUZ | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…4e5ebacked Heroic | 45c | 188.35$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…3fccbacked Heroic | 53c | 183.02$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Heroic | 43c | 179.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee6f…3859backed MOUZ | 48c | 172.92$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…b518backed MOUZ | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed MOUZ | 57c | 156$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aed…eb43backed MOUZ | 65c | 140.31$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.31 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Heroic | 18c | 135$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…b8ffbacked Heroic | 23c | 130.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Heroic | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked MOUZ | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked MOUZ | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -14.1wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Heroic | 14c | 123$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked Heroic | 25c | 119.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…67c5backed Heroic | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…f77fbacked MOUZ | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f35…17f1backed Heroic | 26c | 72.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Heroic | 29c | 69.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed MOUZ | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 191 | 45.5%87 W · 104 L | +13.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdc…1669backed Heroic | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed MOUZ | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Heroic | 25c | 57.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…09c8backed Heroic | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed MOUZ | 57c | 50.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Heroic | 43c | 43.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43f…54a6backed MOUZ | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked MOUZ | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…4705backed MOUZ | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x624d…4322backed MOUZ | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed MOUZ | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ad…79a8backed MOUZ | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Heroic - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Heroic (BO3)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.