Asian League · resolved market
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05536658474290ddb942202f605dcaf638438208d6b33d32caec61edce698910
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,780
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 36c | 3,235$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.8 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Under | 73c | 2,393$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.49 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 1,312$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.72 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed Over | 32c | 1,296$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.04 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 1,239$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.55 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 33c | 887.77$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.2 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +11.7wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Over | 31c | 619$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.16 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 5c | 505.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,035 | 41.6%431 W · 604 L | -33.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 43c | 500$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.32 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Under | 56c | 499.98$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.99 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…edacbacked Over | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 57c | 455$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.65 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 449.99$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 1,749 | 50.7%887 W · 862 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 46c | 413.91$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.48 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 547 | 46.8%256 W · 291 L | -16.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 63c | 236.5$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.76 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 57c | 231.01$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.55 | 1,991 | 54.1%1,078 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 68c | 153$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 593 | 42.5%252 W · 341 L | -28.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 13c | 145.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,235 | 49.9%616 W · 619 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 48c | 141.67$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 58c | 140$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 1,080 | 41.7%450 W · 630 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 101$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 1,357 | 45.5%617 W · 740 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 341 | 50.7%173 W · 168 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 67c | 98.28$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 729 | 44.2%322 W · 407 L | -29.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 42c | 89.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 57c | 69.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Over | 39c | 69.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 52c | 59.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 375 | 52%195 W · 180 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160a…43d3backed Under | 55c | 54.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 44cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 45c | 49.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 226 | 53.5%121 W · 105 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 57c | 47.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 72c | 46.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 450 | 52.2%235 W · 215 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 42c | 43.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +7.7wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 49c | 40.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 61c | 37.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 78 | 29.5%23 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 60c | 26.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 158 | 50%79 W · 79 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 51c | 19.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: Shanghai Shenhua FC O/U 0.5Under won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: Shanghai Shenhua FC O/U 1.5Under won
- Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC: Shanghai Shenhua FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-1.5)Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC won
- Spread: Shanghai Shenhua FC (-2.5)Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC won
- Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-1.5)Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC won
- Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5)Shanghai Shenhua FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.