TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: 1st Half O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,956
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,585

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,956 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under33c2,163$714 inLost-$713.926,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over69c1,408$972 inWon+$436.584,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2918…fe4abacked Over62c537.78$334 inWon+$204.091963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Under21c510$107 inLost-$107.17635.5%27 W · 49 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04cf…9f77backed Over79c510$403 inWon+$107.11353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under34c357.34$121 inLost-$121.341,66234.9%580 W · 1,082 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62f0…0171backed Over66c204.55$135 inWon+$69.554100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36eb…a9fabacked Over63c158.89$100 inWon+$58.894100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+104%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5630…6ca8backed Over65c153.85$100 inWon+$53.85837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick61cpaid-45.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over66c151.52$100 inWon+$51.5235347.6%168 W · 185 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x760b…6dc8backed Under45c119.89$54 inLost-$53.951435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-40.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x304a…3d25backed Over72c67.81$49 inWon+$18.99580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under32c52.22$17 inLost-$16.811,01233.2%336 W · 676 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4c…6047backed Over80c49.99$40 inWon+$102100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Under32c38.7$12 inLost-$12.389660.4%58 W · 38 L+7.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under32c38.7$12 inLost-$12.389358.1%54 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49a9…82b9backed Over64c38$24 inWon+$13.681668.8%11 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb111…393ebacked Over68c29.41$20 inWon+$9.41560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d5e…c32abacked Over71c28.17$20 inWon+$8.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdae…6ad2backed Over80c25$20 inWon+$56269.4%43 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.