Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d0944a0a975f4ce3b9090e13c6de37ec161a74f03da7aa370cb7852c41b9ee1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AFC Bournemouthof Manchester City FC, AFC Bournemouth
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Manchester City FC | 23c | 5,363$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.86 | 886 | 35.8%317 W · 569 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed AFC Bournemouth | 76c | 3,806$2,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.34 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fae…b849backed AFC Bournemouth | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.05 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed AFC Bournemouth | 78c | 1,168$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.92 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed AFC Bournemouth | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Manchester City FC | 24c | 999.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed AFC Bournemouth | 77c | 532.01$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.36 | 557 | 51.5%287 W · 270 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Manchester City FC | 23c | 521.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 232 | 20.7%48 W · 184 L | -12.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…12bdbacked Manchester City FC | 23c | 460$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…121cbacked Manchester City FC | 9c | 224.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae0b…0913backed AFC Bournemouth | 77c | 179.44$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Manchester City FC | 21c | 170.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…97b6backed Manchester City FC | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…481bbacked AFC Bournemouth | 77c | 155.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…7551backed Manchester City FC | 32c | 90.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Manchester City FC | 23c | 89.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed AFC Bournemouth | 77c | 88.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Manchester City FC | 23c | 84.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed AFC Bournemouth | 77c | 79.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed AFC Bournemouth | 77c | 78.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed AFC Bournemouth | 77c | 77.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | -9.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed AFC Bournemouth | 77c | 73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Manchester City FC | 23c | 53.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 543 | 40.5%220 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed AFC Bournemouth | 76c | 38.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked AFC Bournemouth | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed AFC Bournemouth | 75c | 30.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed AFC Bournemouth | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed AFC Bournemouth | 77c | 13.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)this page
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: AFC Bournemouth 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: AFC Bournemouth 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: AFC Bournemouth O/U 0.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: AFC Bournemouth O/U 1.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: AFC Bournemouth O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Manchester City FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Manchester City FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Manchester City FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Manchester City FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 0.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 4.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)AFC Bournemouth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.