Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19da60a0e48c0d8358ae9f18a34e75c57a28f118929501e70398c30659895cb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 79c | 120,149$94,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,150.76 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 21c | 95,366$20,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,026.9 | 189 | 58.7%111 W · 78 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 23c | 10,503$2,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,415.72 | 136 | 30.9%42 W · 94 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 22c | 9,090$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.79 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 7,135$5,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.99 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 23c | 7,002$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.13 | 557 | 51.5%287 W · 270 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 1c | 6,650$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 26c | 5,844$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.37 | 592 | 47.6%282 W · 310 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 23c | 4,132$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.34 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | -9.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 3c | 3,556$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.83 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a95…3a16backed Under | 78c | 3,205$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.13 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed Over | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Under | 79c | 1,641$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.82 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae1…8c1bbacked Over | 4c | 1,374$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fae…b849backed Under | 78c | 1,282$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.05 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…487dbacked Under | 78c | 1,202$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 18c | 690.34$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.91 | 489 | 50.1%245 W · 244 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 74c | 511.97$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.11 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 22c | 476.68$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.67 | 578 | 33%191 W · 387 L | -29.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 9c | 406.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…25dabacked Over | 13c | 369.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 77c | 350$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 24c | 321.93$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 543 | 40.5%220 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 25c | 275.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 112 | 17.9%20 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 78c | 228.44$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 232 | 20.7%48 W · 184 L | -12.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Over | 13c | 189.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 23c | 140$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 24c | 139.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 17c | 130.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -7.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 136 | 33.8%46 W · 90 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 22c | 67.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 173 | 39.9%69 W · 104 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…c449backed Over | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 75c | 53.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 77c | 48.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 78c | 43.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 220 | 57.7%127 W · 93 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c68…219fbacked Under | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Under | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Under | 78c | 19.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 77c | 16.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…2ef1backed Under | 77c | 15.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 4.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: AFC Bournemouth 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: AFC Bournemouth 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: AFC Bournemouth O/U 0.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: AFC Bournemouth O/U 1.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: AFC Bournemouth O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Manchester City FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Manchester City FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Manchester City FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Manchester City FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 0.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)AFC Bournemouth won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)AFC Bournemouth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.