Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Manchester City FC O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb94e7a39267690efc435d1152941de9b83d6bd80b494b309d90e92af56c28ccd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x472d…a11bbacked Over | 67c | 20,895$14,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,895.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 18,876$6,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,726.98 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 13c | 11,142$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,659.32 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8853…c058backed Over | 54c | 6,000$3,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,759.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…ced8backed Over | 71c | 3,786$2,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1ce0backed Over | 63c | 3,178$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb98…b473backed Over | 67c | 3,000$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 38c | 1,462$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.67 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 31c | 1,314$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.68 | 226 | 44.2%100 W · 126 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 30c | 709.29$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.79 | 594 | 45.5%270 W · 324 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 29c | 563.92$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.54 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 31c | 527.35$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.48 | 97 | 35.1%34 W · 63 L | -9.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…d971backed Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 33c | 315.9$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.25 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 33c | 315.89$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.24 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…8b23backed Over | 65c | 305.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…a3b6backed Under | 55c | 266.05$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 33c | 254$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.82 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 33c | 253.14$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 578 | 33%191 W · 387 L | -29.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 33c | 253$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.49 | 296 | 43.6%129 W · 167 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Over | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.77 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 33c | 219.52$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 53c | 216.19$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 557 | 51.5%287 W · 270 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…81e0backed Over | 69c | 173.91$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 69c | 171.42$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 33c | 161.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 35c | 151.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 489 | 50.1%245 W · 244 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…af95backed Over | 68c | 144.12$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…dd3cbacked Over | 69c | 121$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef3a…dc6bbacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 31c | 95.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 698 | 51.1%357 W · 341 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Under | 35c | 78.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 36c | 63.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 220 | 57.7%127 W · 93 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…28d2backed Over | 46c | 60.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Over | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked Under | 55c | 57.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…3fedbacked Over | 69c | 49.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc73a…ba42backed Over | 69c | 47.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…ba95backed Over | 31c | 44.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…0454backed Over | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…c45ebacked Over | 68c | 34.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…5166backed Over | 78c | 32.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 45c | 30.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38eb…5a6dbacked Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 51c | 26.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Under | 79c | 25.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…b200backed Over | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Manchester City FC O/U 1.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: AFC Bournemouth 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: AFC Bournemouth 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: AFC Bournemouth O/U 0.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: AFC Bournemouth O/U 1.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: AFC Bournemouth O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Manchester City FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Manchester City FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: Manchester City FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 0.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 4.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)AFC Bournemouth won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)AFC Bournemouth won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.