TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,432
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,153

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,432 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x584e…090fbacked Yes20c2,389$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.7247834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes17c1,349$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.36538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb1e…66f1backed Yes2c1,088$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-66%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd581…bd3bbacked Yes2c1,041$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-58.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf84d…5e65backed Yes19c892.96$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.029256.5%52 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4651…8da8backed Yes12c741.57$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.028017.5%14 W · 66 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+39.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes13c713.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9618727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes18c566.95$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4296313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No76c555.89$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.832,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes16c551.98$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.381,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd833…ba96backed No65c502.83$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.3712630.2%38 W · 88 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb7e…1757backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011332.7%37 W · 76 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes14c499.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed Yes15c494.73$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1610542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes18c490.44$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.563831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes19c470.78$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7495933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes15c433.24$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3460235.7%215 W · 387 L+41.3wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b6a…db19backed Yes12c426.07$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8614719.7%29 W · 118 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+126.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5637…21f4backed Yes19c400$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.983938.5%15 W · 24 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x812a…6197backed Yes24c395.3$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.175839.7%23 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b5…1948backed No72c389.72$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.368551.8%44 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb878…e3e2backed Yes23c387.68$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes16c360.18$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.24850%24 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes17c263.63$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3024710.9%27 W · 220 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes19c236.5$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.283228.1%9 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes21c234.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7666543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf82…e079backed Yes20c231.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.353844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes34c223.6$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9416036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes22c199.97$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9910531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes31c185.06$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes18c176.44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9554037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes16c171.43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6626834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes11c170$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.81,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No57c169.71$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.551,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb422…b749backed Yes37c164.88$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.261838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fd5…cf27backed No71c162.2$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.626258.1%36 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No71c161.24$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9163656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5a0…5254backed Yes10c147.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes13c143.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2524710.5%26 W · 221 L+1.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes9c130$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.71,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe03e…2365backed Yes29c130$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.71020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-67.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7552…5845backed Yes21c130$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.53234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd90…0a27backed Yes17c128.18$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+86.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes41c124.37$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3752322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf730…8a0abacked Yes41c122$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes31c119.86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.332,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes30c119.68$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.71,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No79c115.36$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3434457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfcd…43bcbacked Yes14c115.08$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.33616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-74.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34fe…4a5bbacked Yes39c108.69$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.963826.3%10 W · 28 L-6.1wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-53.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes15c107.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0413058.5%76 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x020c…0c98backed Yes14c106$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.44714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-80.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1720…2e74backed Yes35c105.59$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.334047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c104.9$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.547,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c6d…1358backed No79c100.21$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.043435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xffc7…7b19backed No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bad…b337backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1032310.5%34 W · 289 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4129642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3526434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4433350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0ae…b4b9backed Yes15c97.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.46633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes18c96.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.999262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No58c95.87$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.83,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes20c95.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4116651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked No80c94.26$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.311359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x364c…2e92backed Yes29c91.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52030%6 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc81…e072backed Yes14c90.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.681850%9 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+44.9%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x0fc8…4af3backed Yes14c83.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.32147.6%10 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.17per pick65cpaid-37%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed No76c81.11$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1723633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a7…1686backed Yes24c74.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-69.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes18c73.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4227079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x972e…dcd8backed Yes17c71.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87df…48f3backed No80c70$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3da3…a83dbacked Yes29c69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa395…59cabacked Yes18c68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.22650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71fb…b277backed No72c65.45$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.55757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d7…72e4backed Yes38c64.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xae91…e382backed Yes43c64.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.954852.1%25 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0467…846fbacked Yes36c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebee…7f68backed Yes26c58.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159529.5%28 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc905…91d5backed Yes39c58.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3e…c49ebacked No50c53.91$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.951,11065%722 W · 388 L+38.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes41c49.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2025536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes43c46.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014736.1%53 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e16…663dbacked Yes49c41.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x517e…4fb2backed No77c40.54$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.159076.7%69 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab0a…36b1backed Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x828c…371ebacked Yes38c39.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7af…3ffbbacked No54c34.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0967…0c60backed No51c32.13$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7418860.1%113 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No56c32.12$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.22,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eee…bac2backed Yes35c31.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.156045%27 W · 33 L-6.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-28.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x138d…32eabacked Yes48c30.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7658…e770backed Yes41c30.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.527546.7%35 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x26c9…0cd3backed Yes46c30.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-48.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc018…b251backed No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.911138.7%43 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb26d…20d4backed Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eaf…fbe1backed No56c24.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2dd…59bbbacked No79c23.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.