Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2b76b1886d3fe2865f6f079cc9727141c003161bba8ed4359ffda101cee3fc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1c…d15dbacked Yes | 33c | 4,556$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,052.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…3730backed No | 67c | 4,556$3,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,052.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4603…8154backed Yes | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a36…f91dbacked No | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 54c | 1,250$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.83 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 69c | 534.47$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.77 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 33c | 480.59$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.52 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 64c | 346.96$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.54 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 291.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.44 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 284.82$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…0fb8backed Yes | 78c | 279.51$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 72c | 268.41$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…cdc0backed Yes | 79c | 239.97$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 72c | 199.54$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 55c | 199.14$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.33 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 53c | 188.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.29 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 66c | 171.43$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 40c | 161.38$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 47c | 161.24$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x020c…0c98backed No | 28c | 154.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 146.35$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.62 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 17c | 120.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 43c | 115$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed No | 18c | 111.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a631backed No | 20c | 110.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c9…4a8bbacked No | 58c | 106.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…2e74backed Yes | 39c | 105.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…c6aabacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 43c | 99.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 30c | 95.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 47c | 90.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 87.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…7b9cbacked Yes | 80c | 87.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 43c | 79.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…4d9fbacked Yes | 73c | 78$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 39c | 73.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed No | 25c | 73.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…b277backed No | 61c | 67.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…e382backed Yes | 41c | 64.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 63.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 37c | 63.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 65c | 60.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 59.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 43c | 59.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd59d…dcffbacked Yes | 64c | 58.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 50c | 56.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…b267backed Yes | 40c | 55.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed No | 32c | 55.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bc…a993backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe45…f9a7backed Yes | 49c | 50.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 59c | 50.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb072…9129backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed No | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a8…ffa4backed Yes | 47c | 47.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…5e13backed Yes | 64c | 46.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 66cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2834…d23abacked No | 59c | 43.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ace…e67fbacked Yes | 63c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 71c | 40.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes | 74c | 40.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes | 50c | 40.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab0a…36b1backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…0cd3backed Yes | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e91…4962backed Yes | 47c | 38.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 77c | 38.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x828c…371ebacked Yes | 50c | 38.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff5…5237backed Yes | 66c | 36.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6671…e109backed No | 58c | 36.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…846fbacked Yes | 48c | 35.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa395…59cabacked Yes | 70c | 34.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 51c | 32.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…032cbacked No | 58c | 32.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…d90abacked Yes | 47c | 32.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 53c | 31.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d9…8758backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…20d4backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…9464backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 35c | 29.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…ff5ebacked Yes | 76c | 29.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…f927backed No | 36c | 27.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 57c | 26.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 55c | 25.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 65c | 24.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…cca6backed No | 56c | 23.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 58c | 20.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…ec74backed Yes | 74c | 20.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…e528backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd818…03c4backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb878…e3e2backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…224dbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.