Mls · resolved market
Will Toronto FC vs. Austin FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0803e5baef6980cd4a525014146175d0788f50d56d4179ac87c355420700e7f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 71c | 10,534$7,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,478.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 9,272$6,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,866.52 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Yes | 29c | 8,961$2,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,362.31 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 21c | 6,256$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,942.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 35c | 3,270$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.9 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 34c | 2,141$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.88 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 67c | 1,796$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.2 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 29c | 1,774$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.2 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc64c…e605backed Yes | 19c | 1,582$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,281.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 1,080$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.22 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 79c | 916$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.64 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 799.8$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.24 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 28c | 714.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.26 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 64c | 676.88$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.63 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 30c | 666.66$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.32 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 51c | 555.54$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.49 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 52c | 555.54$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.44 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked No | 57c | 497$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.87 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes | 20c | 494.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.3 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0833…bc88backed Yes | 56c | 485.91$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.09 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked Yes | 50c | 467.1$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 29c | 413.79$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 77c | 371$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 24c | 362$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.52 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 27c | 342.01$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.91 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 52c | 318.83$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.5 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…c163backed Yes | 74c | 312.69$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.9wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…618abacked No | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Yes | 74c | 268.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 71c | 250.48$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f7…ae57backed No | 16c | 249.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.44per pick | 16cpaid | +280.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Yes | 29c | 242$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.82 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 49c | 223.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 32c | 216.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 71c | 209.69$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 17c | 205.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…fcabbacked No | 56c | 179.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0796…8264backed Yes | 58c | 156.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Yes | 79c | 142.15$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 23c | 129.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.63 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 25c | 129$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed No | 71c | 128.71$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 31c | 123$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 21c | 121.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +13.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked No | 61c | 116.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…8b48backed Yes | 76c | 113.74$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Yes | 29c | 107.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 31c | 102$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 62c | 101.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed No | 45c | 100.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…7eeabacked Yes | 76c | 98.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 27c | 95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 44c | 83.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 58c | 79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57bf…0169backed Yes | 29c | 58.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Yes | 54c | 57.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…5c8ebacked Yes | 30c | 54.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 24c | 54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…f766backed Yes | 27c | 53.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +263.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Yes | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed No | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 65c | 42.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 31c | 40.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…b062backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 79 | 74.7%59 W · 20 L | +10.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd42…9588backed Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a5…7f75backed No | 59c | 37.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked No | 59c | 33.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 72c | 31.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked No | 70c | 29.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…bddfbacked Yes | 49c | 27.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toronto FC vs. Austin FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-18?No won
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.