NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Heat: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0810590e4c9740c8096dca57d7241d3cc04e57bf16543bf11213c4de285ec68c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 20c | 4,542$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.29 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a4…5780backed Over | 46c | 4,468$2,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,055.11 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 56c | 3,290$1,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.87 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Under | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 220 | 55%121 W · 99 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd248…0ceebacked Under | 54c | 2,400$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2aa…6be4backed Over | 46c | 2,002$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.92 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 53c | 1,957$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.83 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 53c | 1,740$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.99 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ba…fa25backed Over | 46c | 1,499$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.54 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 44c | 1,407$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.8 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf312…184dbacked Under | 54c | 1,101$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.46 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked Over | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…5402backed Under | 57c | 1,021$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.05 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 46c | 869.57$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 45c | 800.94$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.42 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 670.13$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.86 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 660.95$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.24 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 54c | 369.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.94 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 53c | 346.77$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.98 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 318.4$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.33 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 45c | 317.16$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 316.5$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.85 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 287.11$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.37 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 45c | 266.15$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.63 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 43c | 233.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.41 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 43c | 221.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Under | 57c | 219.3$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 45c | 205.41$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 42c | 203.94$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 46c | 186.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 45c | 160$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 119.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 45c | 100.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 280 | 56.8%159 W · 121 L | +22.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Over | 47c | 91.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed Over | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…683dbacked Under | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Under | 51c | 51.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…cf14backed Under | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Under | 54c | 48.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 375 | 49.6%186 W · 189 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0190…a3bdbacked Under | 56c | 44.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…31f0backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Over | 46c | 43.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 244 | 28.7%70 W · 174 L | -22.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 51c | 43.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…7cfabacked Over | 46c | 42.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbe…282bbacked Over | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 36.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 46c | 32.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 47c | 30.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8c…686fbacked Over | 37c | 27.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 244 | 9.4%23 W · 221 L | -27.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 53c | 27.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 55c | 24.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e7…884cbacked Under | 56c | 23.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 163 | 38.7%63 W · 100 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 64c | 22.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 327 | 47.4%155 W · 172 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 329 | 47.4%156 W · 173 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Under | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 128 | 41.4%53 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Heat: O/U 227.5this page
- Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Nets vs. HeatHeat won
- Nets vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Nets vs. Heat: O/U 225.5Under won
- Nets vs. Heat: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-13.5)Heat won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.