NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Heat: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10a9654322cdfa2d009009fa6621de811c94a41af54c9484f062f149181c705a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 54c | 6,667$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,067.12 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 6,366$2,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,984.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Over | 48c | 3,700$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Under | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.86 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 47c | 1,354$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.89 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 47c | 1,277$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.19 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Under | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 50c | 1,062$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.12 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 49c | 791.24$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.59 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 50c | 757$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.5 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 50c | 734$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1566…320cbacked Under | 50c | 580$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad92…0927backed Over | 50c | 563$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…9cd6backed Under | 50c | 543$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…b77cbacked Over | 50c | 521$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…602ebacked Over | 50c | 519$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea8…32e2backed Under | 50c | 486$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5a…ee3cbacked Under | 50c | 457$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 47c | 456.29$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.75 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e2…1362backed Under | 50c | 450$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…5733backed Over | 50c | 438$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b39…6ef4backed Over | 50c | 427.06$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf291…f16cbacked Over | 50c | 419$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d5…d3a4backed Under | 50c | 371$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 358.29$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.4 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 48c | 336.92$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.92 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 54c | 261.78$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.45 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Under | 51c | 253.62$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.15 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 41c | 236.37$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.21 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 46c | 218.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 49c | 216.11$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.15 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 49c | 202.3$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.62 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 40c | 189.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 48c | 186.59$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 179.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f3…f487backed Over | 79c | 178.67$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 53c | 166$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.02 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 39c | 162.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Over | 47c | 161.32$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 36c | 161.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 64c | 161.11$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 149.31$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Over | 49c | 143.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Over | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 40c | 126.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 21c | 113.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.8 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 54c | 112.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x565b…fa9bbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 42c | 68.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Under | 65c | 54.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb568…14d4backed Over | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -20.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…cf14backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 58c | 45.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 47c | 44.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…2ca4backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Over | 56c | 35.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Under | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 619 | 39.6%245 W · 374 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Under | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…1b97backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 70c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xba27…c6fbbacked Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Over | 46c | 25.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 59c | 21.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 215 | 53.5%115 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…7b79backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Heat: O/U 226.5this page
- Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Nets vs. HeatHeat won
- Nets vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Nets vs. Heat: O/U 225.5Under won
- Nets vs. Heat: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-13.5)Heat won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.