NBA · resolved market
Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 16.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a77cba3d093f77ac166388a1357e7c5c156ae37e9ca327f80d9b5cad22d9952
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 58c | 4,434$2,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,849.93 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 42c | 2,403$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.73 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Yes | 48c | 722.3$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.2 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…f39cbacked No | 68c | 643.62$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.96 | 270 | 59.6%161 W · 109 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 53c | 471$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.37 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 51c | 284$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.9 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 60c | 174.73$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 58c | 171.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…8498backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes | 41c | 99.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…132abacked Yes | 48c | 72.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 136 | 39.7%54 W · 82 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…788bbacked Yes | 38c | 70.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe07f…08d6backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked No | 52c | 47.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…f3b8backed Yes | 44c | 36.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…7528backed Yes | 62c | 32.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -11.0wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed No | 55c | 31.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Yes | 44c | 26.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 62c | 18.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 16.5this page
- Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Davion Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Day'Ron Sharpe: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Nets vs. HeatHeat won
- Nets vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Nets vs. Heat: O/U 225.5Under won
- Nets vs. Heat: O/U 226.5Under won
- Nets vs. Heat: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-12.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-13.5)Heat won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.