TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Michael Zheng

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Michael Zhengof Colton Smith, Michael Zheng
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,003
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,647

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,003 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Michael Zheng58c2,800$1,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,17625453.1%135 W · 119 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Colton Smith40c2,662$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.961,36338.3%522 W · 841 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Michael Zheng59c2,542$1,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.094,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e4…3c69backed Colton Smith40c2,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00037044.3%164 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Michael Zheng68c1,846$1,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.378,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Colton Smith44c1,595$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.784,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaec0…9430backed Colton Smith9c1,113$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003063.3%19 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99fc…ec26backed Michael Zheng58c1,041$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.6664540.2%259 W · 386 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Michael Zheng72c1,031$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.048,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Colton Smith29c1,000$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.589,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Colton Smith42c999.99$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.552,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Colton Smith20c941.34$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.1711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Colton Smith18c855.24$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.115,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Michael Zheng71c816.26$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.7348152%250 W · 231 L+0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Michael Zheng61c783.21$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.662,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Colton Smith40c754.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30087337.1%324 W · 549 L-3.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Colton Smith42c752.86$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.693,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed Colton Smith40c748.13$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30056651.8%293 W · 273 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Colton Smith19c639.54$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.342,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Colton Smith42c600$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.457,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Colton Smith26c599.99$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.791,22823.1%284 W · 944 L-164.0wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-47%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Colton Smith41c558.96$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.791,55642.4%660 W · 896 L+20.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Michael Zheng77c530$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.461,62652.7%857 W · 769 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1226…f998backed Michael Zheng68c529.32$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.3229940.1%120 W · 179 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Colton Smith42c519.5$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.995,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Colton Smith11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef3a…1eb3backed Colton Smith47c427.05$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017941.3%74 W · 105 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Michael Zheng68c420.67$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.712,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2725…e7d1backed Colton Smith41c242.81$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9943952.4%230 W · 209 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97f6…66e2backed Colton Smith37c242.46$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.036532.3%21 W · 44 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-35.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Colton Smith40c239.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.822246.8%104 W · 118 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Michael Zheng57c231$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.5665942.2%278 W · 381 L-25.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd304…3ed2backed Michael Zheng60c230.96$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.432254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Michael Zheng73c220.17$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.486,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Michael Zheng57c210$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.364350.2%323 W · 320 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Colton Smith44c194.94$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.472,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Michael Zheng62c194.64$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6491754%495 W · 422 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Colton Smith26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5032147%151 W · 170 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed Colton Smith38c181.94$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.539149.1%192 W · 199 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87e6…9c8abacked Michael Zheng62c179.61$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.619348.4%45 W · 48 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a80…d472backed Michael Zheng56c179.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.231,18652.4%622 W · 564 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72db…1029backed Michael Zheng58c178.57$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7510859.3%64 W · 44 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Colton Smith21c174.61$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.586,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Colton Smith42c170$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.553,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked Michael Zheng60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6759165.3%386 W · 205 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Michael Zheng60c166.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6637238.2%142 W · 230 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Colton Smith14c164.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.346,44946.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L-42.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Colton Smith42c154.08$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.591,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Michael Zheng78c153.93$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.272,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6686backed Colton Smith22c143.7$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.171,33746%615 W · 722 L+23.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Colton Smith40c137.65$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.912,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85db…d0e7backed Michael Zheng60c133.33$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.335662.5%35 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34de…6d75backed Colton Smith40c132.9$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe426…f4ffbacked Michael Zheng58c128.28$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.038243.9%36 W · 46 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Colton Smith41c125.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.781,54149.2%758 W · 783 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Colton Smith39c121.86$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0792237.4%345 W · 577 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe37…911dbacked Michael Zheng76c120$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.232675.2%245 W · 81 L+20.4wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Michael Zheng56c116.52$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.272,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5803…3f3fbacked Michael Zheng71c112.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2785348.9%417 W · 436 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Colton Smith42c111.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.697,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x108d…b85dbacked Colton Smith45c108.56$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.852157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed Colton Smith39c101.15$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1960141.1%247 W · 354 L-11.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Colton Smith41c100.33$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.671,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Michael Zheng61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.458753.7%315 W · 272 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Michael Zheng62c99.95$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.352,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Michael Zheng60c97.68$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.033,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Colton Smith41c97.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.961,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x692b…b4f2backed Colton Smith40c92$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.845744.2%202 W · 255 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdfa…79a0backed Michael Zheng58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.214153.7%22 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed Michael Zheng79c84$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.443750.3%220 W · 217 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x362c…67e6backed Colton Smith16c83.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5937255.6%207 W · 165 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Michael Zheng69c75.37$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.73,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8c8…b949backed Michael Zheng58c75$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.522059.5%131 W · 89 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a0…a986backed Michael Zheng56c75$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3310965.1%71 W · 38 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ad5…ccdebacked Colton Smith38c74.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4755032.7%180 W · 370 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Colton Smith16c73.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.912,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79d0…4dffbacked Colton Smith29c72.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8431220.5%64 W · 248 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Michael Zheng58c71.43$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3045751%233 W · 224 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x55e7…4fb9backed Michael Zheng55c70.25$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6143553.1%231 W · 204 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x920b…9eccbacked Colton Smith19c70$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.238655.8%48 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2638…8e2dbacked Michael Zheng60c59.28$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9831657%180 W · 136 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked Colton Smith31c57.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6474346.3%344 W · 399 L-28.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x392a…da0cbacked Michael Zheng61c57.08$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.438047.5%38 W · 42 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x985d…33c9backed Colton Smith44c56.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,30036.9%480 W · 820 L-34.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Michael Zheng54c51.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8755748.8%272 W · 285 L+23.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed Michael Zheng59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4456153.7%301 W · 260 L+19.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Michael Zheng63c49.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.58450%42 W · 42 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Colton Smith23c47.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.121,62949%798 W · 831 L-51.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed Colton Smith45c47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2530436.8%112 W · 192 L-19.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Colton Smith42c45.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.842,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked Colton Smith30c44.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4123427.4%64 W · 170 L-40.1wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-48.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1d0a…ea32backed Colton Smith29c43.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.543618.3%80 W · 356 L-21.4wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Michael Zheng68c42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.541,72552.2%901 W · 824 L-8.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3e43…0306backed Colton Smith47c40.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0532726.9%88 W · 239 L-43.6wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-41.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed Michael Zheng61c40.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8328237.9%107 W · 175 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Colton Smith43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,15148.7%560 W · 591 L+8.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99ad…064ebacked Michael Zheng55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.215445.5%70 W · 84 L-16.6wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-22.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xce8b…738abacked Colton Smith41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.422230.6%68 W · 154 L-25.6wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Michael Zheng77c39.68$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0760452.5%317 W · 287 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Colton Smith46c39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.781,76752.1%920 W · 847 L-2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.