NFL · resolved market

Will Cameron Ward be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08a805af4aa8ecdbdcf6acdaff91ab717905637e220f3d459268af1099a714f0

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $56,270
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,443

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,270 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	0c	7,867$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.79	61	1.6%1 W · 60 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-95.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ca…b27abacked Yes	0c	6,546$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.09	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	+5.3wins	+0.13per pick	46cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x97b6…59b4backed Yes	0c	4,292$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes	0c	3,431$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	186	29.6%55 W · 131 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6edf…3ff9backed Yes	27c	734.12$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf961…62bbbacked Yes	26c	465$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.55	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed No	75c	300$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	283	37.8%107 W · 176 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	78c	300$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66	118	37.3%44 W · 74 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes	18c	280$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	553	45%249 W · 304 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa310…4c56backed Yes	22c	232.27$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	29cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes	13c	101$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.13	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-2.7wins	-0.15per pick	26cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc612…46fbbacked Yes	18c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-18%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	78c	45.45$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	314	39.8%125 W · 189 L	-16.0wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No	77c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.6	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Cameron Ward be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event