Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 79°F or below on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08f1993821fac0ff66ad300a6c90e95f97eb8d2d8b416d531eeed522e4e2eb20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 47c | 1,999$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.46 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 1,713$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 1,046$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 40c | 877.88$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.72 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 56c | 767.26$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.6 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 648.91$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 38c | 644.8$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.63 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 498.51$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 78c | 405.45$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 48c | 291.7$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.27 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 14c | 250.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 216.03$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.33 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 62c | 187.94$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 179.59$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.32 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 173.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 54c | 172.14$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 12c | 167.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 160.08$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 65c | 151.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 35c | 150$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 69c | 147.05$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 140.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 54c | 137.33$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 38c | 128.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 50c | 127$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 12c | 112.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 112.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd071…92ccbacked Yes | 74c | 106.13$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 106$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60e…d332backed Yes | 59c | 99.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 76c | 97.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 78c | 96.7$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 76c | 92.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed Yes | 65c | 91.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 64c | 91.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 54c | 86.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…b823backed No | 79c | 74.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 67c | 72.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 20c | 68.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 59.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 59c | 58.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 40c | 57.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 45c | 55.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 45c | 55.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 69c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 19c | 54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 75c | 52.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed Yes | 64c | 47.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 43.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…5123backed No | 58c | 42.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…f288backed Yes | 64c | 38.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 45c | 34.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…e7dcbacked Yes | 58c | 33.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…67bebacked Yes | 64c | 31.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed No | 38c | 30.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…f600backed Yes | 60c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…cd9abacked No | 67c | 29.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 27.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…576dbacked Yes | 42c | 26.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 46c | 25.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 62c | 24.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f901backed Yes | 66c | 22.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 44cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…4990backed No | 62c | 19.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 65c | 18.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 18.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x455c…e548backed No | 78c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 66cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…5e53backed No | 78c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 75c | 13.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 13.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 79°F or below on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.