Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75ac9500383d40444106d21824adc102063d1eb8a57628db7906d3eed0310ec1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 1,815$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 27c | 1,017$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.2 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 869.89$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 642.96$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.83 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 472.21$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.03 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 458$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 383.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.28 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 346.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 325.19$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 39c | 306.23$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.82 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 56c | 279.36$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.36 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 4c | 275.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 263.95$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 76c | 239.78$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.23 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 222.08$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 57c | 210.18$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.17 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 58c | 201.79$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.87 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 60c | 182.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 167$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.91 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 21c | 166.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.41 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 60c | 152.24$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 149.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 62c | 147.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.81 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 74c | 138.35$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.81 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 135.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.43 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 120$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 40c | 119.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 115.79$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 20c | 108.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 107.49$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 56c | 106.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 104.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 103.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 25c | 97.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 23c | 90.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 89.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 54c | 88.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 24c | 87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 83.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 82.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…3ee2backed No | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 77.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 24c | 70.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 24c | 63.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 35c | 61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…9208backed No | 54c | 60.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 23c | 58.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 58.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 59c | 57.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 33c | 56.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a6b4backed Yes | 24c | 53.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 69c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 26c | 52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 52c | 51.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 30c | 49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 76c | 47.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 43.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…af42backed No | 54c | 41.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 46c | 39.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 53c | 37.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 72c | 36.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07bb…fccabacked No | 54c | 36.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 80c | 33.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 74c | 32.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 31.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 27.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 25.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 25.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 74c | 24.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…3d0fbacked No | 56c | 24.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 62c | 23.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1f18…dc6dbacked No | 56c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 76c | 16.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…95ddbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 79°F or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.