Middle East · resolved market
Will Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09192a302b78cc9c584dd2991ae7db009702b15c4c1f5ee6fbb5016e9b0ac71c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x837b…8726backed Yes | 5c | 7,163$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 4,963$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.71 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…f259backed Yes | 16c | 4,268$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.77 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 6c | 3,924$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.3 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 8c | 3,900$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.99 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,873$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 3,238$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.61 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,118$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.58 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a4…0ea6backed Yes | 10c | 3,063$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 5c | 2,449$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.76 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes | 13c | 2,022$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.7 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 10c | 1,961$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…edbdbacked Yes | 18c | 1,943$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.11 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 13c | 1,723$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.66 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…15c1backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,228$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d6…50c7backed Yes | 7c | 1,185$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 3c | 1,028$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab1…ed8bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Yes | 11c | 935.82$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 8c | 915.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fb58backed Yes | 5c | 914.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 11c | 896.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 2c | 781.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 7c | 717.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes | 3c | 671.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…283abacked Yes | 7c | 649.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…4391backed Yes | 12c | 620.55$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 591$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9d…35f8backed Yes | 9c | 511.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 10c | 505.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 7c | 443.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…4fcbbacked Yes | 11c | 420.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +182.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 4c | 418.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 7c | 401.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebe…a25ebacked Yes | 5c | 330$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 13c | 316.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2333…7ebfbacked Yes | 7c | 307.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb432…cca4backed Yes | 7c | 306.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 9c | 299.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x262a…4e7ebacked Yes | 17c | 291.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a0…0bcfbacked Yes | 18c | 279.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 12c | 270.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…7350backed Yes | 5c | 247.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 29cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x101d…922cbacked Yes | 9c | 222.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 25c | 219.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed Yes | 9c | 211.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 12c | 210$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 12c | 210$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed Yes | 9c | 201$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5801…a4afbacked Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4d…d85bbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2541…60acbacked Yes | 22c | 182.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 7c | 179.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 13c | 175$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7f…abeabacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…bdadbacked Yes | 10c | 146.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 9c | 135$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes | 14c | 123.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…359cbacked Yes | 10c | 121.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…45f8backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +417.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked Yes | 12c | 119.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721e…9b48backed Yes | 17c | 116.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c08…e7b6backed Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc050…2f67backed Yes | 19c | 105.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…7b85backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd432…eba8backed Yes | 17c | 87.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…d9e9backed Yes | 17c | 87.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 24c | 87.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x317d…8812backed Yes | 15c | 67.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 8cpaid | +1,060.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.