Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09989c15896f329b6b56865d17a9702ee9d2e7ca5830a152e870516823a14907
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,614$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.6 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 24c | 801.91$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.76 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 78c | 747.01$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.81 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 25c | 451.16$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.16 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 402.67$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.46 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 329.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 18c | 323.46$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 305.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 24c | 290.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 240.25$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 228.97$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 199.47$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 33c | 178.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 163.94$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 52c | 161.91$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 23c | 157.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 156.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…dbdabacked Yes | 34c | 146.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 140$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 66c | 137.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 39c | 118$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 115$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 110$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 49c | 102.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 60c | 99.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 90.3$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 89.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 82.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 24c | 79.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 53c | 77.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 26c | 76.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 22c | 67.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff0…0a65backed Yes | 32c | 64.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 63.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 63c | 56.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c98…7d22backed Yes | 25c | 52.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 76c | 43.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 43.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 42.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 40.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 29c | 39.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6980…ad0dbacked Yes | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 67c | 34.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 63c | 17.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 16.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 14.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 14.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.