Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6c7b3dc8c3a3e6a75bee62560fdfb2484b8bb7008eaddfef9b2c16f0a48cd4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 60c | 2,205$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.43 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 54c | 1,076$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.49 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,000$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.03 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 33c | 667.04$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.21 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 624.28$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 52c | 617.12$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.94 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 616.01$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.18 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 56c | 565.36$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.71 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 547.9$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 50c | 490.74$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.74 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 47c | 467.81$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.8 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 403$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.08 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 396.15$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.21 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 48c | 333.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.82 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 51c | 325.3$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.67 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 47c | 318$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.57 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 299.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 281.48$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.33 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 50c | 235.69$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.66 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 47c | 226.84$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.22 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked No | 31c | 223.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 214.92$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 48c | 194.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 180$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 179.89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 179.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 43c | 164.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.39 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 145.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 40c | 144$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 48c | 142.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 36c | 139$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 126.63$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 50c | 124$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 47c | 116.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 42c | 114.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 109.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 105$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 55c | 99.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 55c | 98.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 51c | 98.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 56c | 97.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 54c | 97.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 57c | 96.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.93 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 60c | 94.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 90.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 52c | 83.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 60c | 83.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 67c | 82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 59c | 78.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 55c | 77.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 77.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked No | 61c | 73.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 70.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…ddfcbacked Yes | 51c | 63.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 47c | 62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 59.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 58.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a43cbacked No | 51c | 58.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 58.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 57c | 58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 42c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 37c | 55.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 54.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fb0ebacked Yes | 56c | 52.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e28…882bbacked Yes | 57c | 51.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c98…7d22backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 51c | 49.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked No | 47c | 47.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 51c | 46.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 44.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 63c | 44.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 45c | 44.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 61c | 43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 46c | 41.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 42c | 40.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 58c | 40.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 36c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 51c | 38.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 54c | 38.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 54c | 37.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 34c | 35.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…558bbacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 50c | 31.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d8…463ebacked No | 59c | 26.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…b4e0backed No | 58c | 25.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.