MLB · resolved market
Pirates vs. Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09b5e1f848660cbea8dc1b829c65327d3f8c1aea99717caf91aca845bab3df34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philliesof Pirates, Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Phillies | 53c | 20,928$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,927.69 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pirates | 45c | 12,878$5,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,758.69 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Pirates | 50c | 6,801$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400.27 | 444 | 56.5%251 W · 193 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Phillies | 49c | 3,514$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,792.11 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Pirates | 53c | 2,200$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.85 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc84…3e67backed Phillies | 51c | 2,000$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.98 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pirates | 38c | 1,934$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.61 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…2b6bbacked Phillies | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Pirates | 47c | 1,494$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.3 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Phillies | 68c | 1,471$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.59 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…4534backed Pirates | 51c | 1,409$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.41 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Phillies | 50c | 1,093$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.36 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Pirates | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Pirates | 49c | 920.39$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.99 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…a8e1backed Pirates | 51c | 876.98$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.26 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Pirates | 47c | 851.11$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.02 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Phillies | 49c | 810$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.1 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Phillies | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Pirates | 41c | 758.29$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.26 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Phillies | 48c | 700$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Pirates | 28c | 490.51$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.84 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pirates | 51c | 395.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.28 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd33b…4e00backed Pirates | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Pirates | 48c | 379.9$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.82 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Pirates | 51c | 350$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Pirates | 47c | 348.42$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.37 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Phillies | 52c | 346.15$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.15 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Phillies | 73c | 318.73$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.23 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x519f…2af7backed Phillies | 58c | 305.73$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.73 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Phillies | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Phillies | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e12…7348backed Phillies | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 384 | 55.7%214 W · 170 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Pirates | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Phillies | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 206 | 45.1%93 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Pirates | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Pirates | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Pirates | 51c | 170$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Pirates | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Phillies | 48c | 104.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3def…08b4backed Phillies | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Phillies | 59c | 85.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Pirates | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5f6fbacked Phillies | 59c | 76.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Phillies | 47c | 73.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a8…fb9dbacked Phillies | 67c | 61.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Pirates | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 850 | 47.4%403 W · 447 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Phillies | 58c | 56.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…a0c5backed Pirates | 51c | 54.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Pirates | 45c | 53.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Phillies | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Pirates | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee57…33a7backed Phillies | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Pirates | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Phillies | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…3a83backed Phillies | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17ab…cdcbbacked Phillies | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…a91ebacked Phillies | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…8885backed Phillies | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Phillies | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Phillies | 50c | 39.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb97…add3backed Phillies | 53c | 37.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5080…610bbacked Phillies | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Phillies | 49c | 32.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Phillies | 50c | 32.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed Phillies | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Phillies | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Phillies | 53c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56df…ffd4backed Phillies | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5eb…a613backed Phillies | 49c | 25.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…66afbacked Phillies | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 164 | 72%118 W · 46 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed Phillies | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.