NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09c3d00fec25d4073c7b67d35e55d9dc4b7d1d0ba88389f7e8dc664997205cb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Over | 50c | 100,443$50,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,221.39 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 58,612$29,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,303.89 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 50c | 34,437$17,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,218.73 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…d49fbacked Over | 50c | 5,939$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,969.5 | 483 | 52%251 W · 232 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 2,750$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,371.16 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 50c | 2,031$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.48 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 50c | 1,855$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.36 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 1,388$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.88 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 50c | 1,273$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.1 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Under | 51c | 1,225$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.49 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Under | 50c | 1,175$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.32 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 1,044$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.92 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…585abacked Under | 52c | 685.21$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.43 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 604.61$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Under | 53c | 424.62$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.62 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 50c | 378$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 376.33$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.16 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1f27backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…fb30backed Under | 52c | 166.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 626 | 52.2%327 W · 299 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…e2afbacked Under | 50c | 75.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6299…dd7dbacked Under | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 58.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…735cbacked Under | 51c | 50.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…7ab1backed Under | 58c | 49.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…fbd1backed Over | 49c | 32.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…1950backed Under | 53c | 31.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6790…c9e9backed Under | 76c | 29.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Over | 50c | 27.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…8ff5backed Under | 52c | 26.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 47c | 25.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Under | 51c | 25.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Under | 50c | 21.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0f…68f6backed Under | 52c | 20.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. HornetsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 237.5Under won
- Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.