NBA · resolved market

Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeebdd4e9d38aada162d46f6fba95c317cb19921078d08089e617bb96ba4f3bd7

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Hornets
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $236,869
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $272,822

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,869 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa8e0…ad50backed Hornets	51c	58,820$29,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29,899.96	431	48.7%210 W · 221 L	-5.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Cavaliers	49c	47,512$23,281 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24,231.27	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Hornets	50c	44,284$22,287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22,286.6	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Cavaliers	49c	40,816$20,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,816.33	443	52.4%232 W · 211 L	+10.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2db…aa08backed Cavaliers	50c	28,322$14,161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,161	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Hornets	53c	21,290$11,284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,283.7	458	50.4%231 W · 227 L	+11.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Hornets	51c	21,000$10,710 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,709.76	375	57.6%216 W · 159 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Hornets	51c	20,853$10,631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,631.18	593	47%279 W · 314 L	-7.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Hornets	50c	15,921$7,960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,960.41	478	48.1%230 W · 248 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Cavaliers	47c	12,420$5,837 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,582.69	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Cavaliers	49c	8,163$4,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,163.27	334	47.9%160 W · 174 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Cavaliers	50c	7,398$3,699 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,699	269	49.1%132 W · 137 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers	47c	4,740$2,230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,509.99	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Hornets	51c	4,133$2,088 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,088.01	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Cavaliers	49c	4,082$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,081.63	517	53.8%278 W · 239 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Hornets	51c	3,857$1,967 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,966.87	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8861…4c2ebacked Cavaliers	50c	3,199$1,599 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,599.37	38	60.5%23 W · 15 L	+3.6wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers	53c	2,901$1,542 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,359.26	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed Cavaliers	51c	2,596$1,324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,272.07	67	47.8%32 W · 35 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Cavaliers	51c	1,961$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$960.78	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa62d…92e0backed Cavaliers	51c	1,401$711 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$690.44	100	49%49 W · 51 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers	47c	1,131$532 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$599.43	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Hornets	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	379	44.3%168 W · 211 L	-10.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Cavaliers	48c	997$479 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$518.44	346	54%187 W · 159 L	+13.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Cavaliers	50c	960$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	238	45%107 W · 131 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fca…9d33backed Cavaliers	50c	958.82$479 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$479.41	65	41.5%27 W · 38 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Cavaliers	49c	944$458 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$486.12	430	52.3%225 W · 205 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f5a…9ecdbacked Cavaliers	49c	612.24$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312.24	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+93.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Hornets	50c	600$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	284	48.2%137 W · 147 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Hornets	52c	598.08$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311	71	53.5%38 W · 33 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Hornets	50c	383.28$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.64	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers	49c	377.65$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.14	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Hornets	24c	371.99$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.84	448	21.4%96 W · 352 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Hornets	16c	360.47$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.68	285	37.9%108 W · 177 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Cavaliers	49c	248$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.48	193	50.3%97 W · 96 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Hornets	49c	231$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.96	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Hornets	53c	203.77$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	745	47.2%352 W · 393 L	-13.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Cavaliers	47c	200$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106	293	46.4%136 W · 157 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd420…df90backed Cavaliers	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	514	51.9%267 W · 247 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Hornets	51c	198.04$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	685	42.6%292 W · 393 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1d…d8c0backed Cavaliers	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	51	39.2%20 W · 31 L	-7.4wins	-0.15per pick	54cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Hornets	51c	192.16$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	147	27.9%41 W · 106 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Hornets	51c	156.86$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d64…5c93backed Cavaliers	49c	139.96$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.38	85	49.4%42 W · 43 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadc5…e2afbacked Cavaliers	49c	133.35$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.01	111	50.5%56 W · 55 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Cavaliers	49c	124.2$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.34	927	50.6%469 W · 458 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa90…d716backed Cavaliers	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Cavaliers	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe872…fd21backed Hornets	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	140	36.4%51 W · 89 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b5…7b0bbacked Hornets	39c	100$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	54	35.2%19 W · 35 L	-4.7wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x392c…bb64backed Hornets	49c	92.17$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	44	50%22 W · 22 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Hornets	52c	76.91$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Hornets	50c	73.93$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.33	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Hornets	52c	65.38$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Cavaliers	49c	61.22$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.22	530	43.8%232 W · 298 L	-25.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ca…0d75backed Cavaliers	54c	57.41$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.41	127	35.4%45 W · 82 L	-12.4wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Hornets	53c	56.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Cavaliers	48c	46.74$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.3	397	56.7%225 W · 172 L	+21.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Hornets	50c	46.54$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.24	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Hornets	49c	40.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Cavaliers	48c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.8	114	43%49 W · 65 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Cavaliers	48c	39.82$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.83	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Hornets	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	531	49.3%262 W · 269 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0501…61ecbacked Cavaliers	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	+2.5wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Hornets	51c	39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.89	712	45.8%326 W · 386 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Hornets	33c	33.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	503	51.5%259 W · 244 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd066…9eecbacked Cavaliers	61c	32.79$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.79	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf228…fbfabacked Hornets	53c	31.7$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Cavaliers	51c	29.41$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.41	165	46.1%76 W · 89 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf280…b65bbacked Cavaliers	49c	28.42$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.42	307	43%132 W · 175 L	-19.1wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-19%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee55…5411backed Cavaliers	50c	27.6$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.8	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Cavaliers	48c	27.18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.13	806	53.6%432 W · 374 L	+16.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x329e…2eafbacked Cavaliers	42c	25.95$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.05	53	22.6%12 W · 41 L	-11.5wins	-0.22per pick	44cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	34-0.15 edge/pick
0x7299…31f3backed Cavaliers	51c	23.73$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.73	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bc…4d94backed Hornets	53c	22.74$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	210	51.4%108 W · 102 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)this page
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
Cavaliers vs. HornetsCavaliers won
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5Under won
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 237.5Under won
Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 238.5Under won
Jaylon Tyson: Points O/U 15.5No won
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event