TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Nets: 1H O/U 113.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$749
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$921

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $749 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaacf…5f84backed Under60c200$120 inLost-$1201,15153.7%618 W · 533 L-41.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over40c121.66$49 inWon+$732,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over40c100$40 inWon+$602,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aff…c91bbacked Over43c99$43 inWon+$56.439050%45 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd53…a861backed Over45c54$24 inWon+$29.76349.2%31 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Over50c38$19 inWon+$1948740.7%198 W · 289 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb736…1946backed Under57c36$21 inLost-$20.526048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a2c…38ccbacked Under57c32$18 inLost-$18.243237.5%12 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0bd1…0100backed Under57c31$18 inLost-$17.673351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under54c22.78$12 inLost-$12.33,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Under60c21.66$13 inLost-$1340849%200 W · 208 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under51c20.19$10 inLost-$10.275,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc789…3907backed Under55c20$11 inLost-$113342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe829…a4aabacked Under55c19$10 inLost-$10.452425%6 W · 18 L-6.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-51.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.