NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nets (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47253b0b2cdbee591f5eac227e070e3f7a79dee9542c3ccf664179593739fa8a

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Netsof Nets, Wizards
Resolved: Feb 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $69,026
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $69,513

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,026 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x869f…7a8bbacked Nets	54c	14,986$8,043 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,943.45	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards	44c	10,906$4,837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,836.61	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83bd…bdbfbacked Nets	54c	9,941$5,385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,555.56	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	50cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76b9…12e4backed Wizards	45c	6,194$2,787 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,787.08	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Wizards	47c	5,126$2,409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,409.38	247	44.1%109 W · 138 L	-10.8wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9726…892ebacked Nets	55c	3,555$1,955 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,599.74	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Wizards	46c	3,467$1,595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,595	316	44.6%141 W · 175 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Nets	61c	3,431$2,086 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,344.62	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Wizards	49c	3,303$1,612 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,612.02	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Nets	52c	3,157$1,642 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,515.3	415	53.3%221 W · 194 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Nets	50c	3,103$1,551 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,552.59	163	39.3%64 W · 99 L	-10.2wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Wizards	47c	2,809$1,318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,317.53	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6c…8f4ebacked Nets	55c	2,639$1,451 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,187.34	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Wizards	45c	2,626$1,175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,174.53	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa44e…87aebacked Wizards	47c	2,453$1,147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,147	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.27per pick	47cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Wizards	45c	1,891$847 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$847.12	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa63c…27a4backed Wizards	46c	1,880$865 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$865	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-4.1wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-25%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Nets	56c	1,609$901 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$707.75	265	44.9%119 W · 146 L	-8.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e1e…bb68backed Nets	52c	1,538$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$738.46	95	56.8%54 W · 41 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Wizards	44c	1,500$665 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$665	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Nets	52c	1,473$765 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$707.6	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Wizards	44c	1,451$637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$637.19	1,163	52.8%614 W · 549 L	+22.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Nets	53c	1,053$555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$498.11	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Wizards	47c	999.99$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Wizards	46c	884$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.64	547	47.5%260 W · 287 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Wizards	49c	699.45$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.84	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Nets	56c	614.62$343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$271.62	168	37.5%63 W · 105 L	-20.6wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-25%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfc0d…78a5backed Wizards	47c	381.31$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.67	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	-6.5wins	-0.17per pick	49cpaid	-36%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0d1e…effebacked Wizards	50c	360$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	82	52.4%43 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Nets	61c	327.87$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.87	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ebf…82d5backed Nets	51c	300$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbabe…f584backed Wizards	49c	300$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Nets	54c	287.05$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.74	506	51.2%259 W · 247 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf9…587bbacked Nets	52c	278.04$146 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.14	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+69.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Wizards	49c	249.99$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.5	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63f4…83a0backed Wizards	47c	202.57$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.16	63	47.6%30 W · 33 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Nets	65c	201.9$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.02	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Wizards	49c	200.01$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.5	506	53.2%269 W · 237 L	+8.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Wizards	51c	197.81$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	818	45.7%374 W · 444 L	+9.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked Nets	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	290	46.9%136 W · 154 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5974…2a69backed Nets	52c	192.31$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.31	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0394…20e9backed Nets	51c	186$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.14	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-3.7wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Wizards	12c	173.34$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.84	302	44%133 W · 169 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Nets	58c	172.41$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.41	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Wizards	46c	163.04$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.61	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5558…f9c4backed Nets	50c	139.79$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.9	375	49.6%186 W · 189 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Wizards	43c	139.53$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Wizards	34c	126.95$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.6	470	45.1%212 W · 258 L	-10.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Wizards	50c	118.8$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.4	242	50.8%123 W · 119 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Wizards	45c	113.52$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	509	48.5%247 W · 262 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Wizards	47c	108$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.83	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Nets	61c	98.41$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.41	332	58.7%195 W · 137 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd448…f700backed Wizards	44c	90.91$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	109	53.2%58 W · 51 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Nets	58c	86.21$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.21	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Nets	71c	79$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.61	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c04…2e2dbacked Wizards	44c	77.27$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	506	48%243 W · 263 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6508…1077backed Wizards	50c	72$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	118	37.3%44 W · 74 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b41…01c7backed Wizards	39c	64$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.96	538	39.4%212 W · 326 L	-26.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Wizards	46c	63$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.69	243	30.5%74 W · 169 L	-15.4wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Wizards	47c	58.5$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.35	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Nets	58c	57.77$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.24	576	57.8%333 W · 243 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6677…575cbacked Wizards	39c	50.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.65	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	-3.9wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Wizards	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	118	54.2%64 W · 54 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x364b…f9bebacked Nets	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Nets	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	1,150	49.5%569 W · 581 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Nets	66c	49$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.66	903	57%515 W · 388 L	+40.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked Nets	52c	48.08$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.08	199	51.8%103 W · 96 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Wizards	48c	48.08$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.08	634	47.5%301 W · 333 L	-19.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2038…b0e7backed Wizards	50c	38.76$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.38	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ae…035cbacked Nets	51c	36.25$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.76	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Nets	51c	35.29$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.29	659	50.8%335 W · 324 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Nets	54c	35$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.1	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Nets	58c	34.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.48	1,573	53.4%840 W · 733 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe547…654cbacked Nets	51c	32.54$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.94	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Wizards	44c	31.82$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	599	48.4%290 W · 309 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d16…a0dabacked Wizards	50c	30.03$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.02	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fd3…afd8backed Nets	51c	28.8$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.11	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Wizards	46c	24.3$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	397	56.7%225 W · 172 L	+21.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x386f…7031backed Wizards	50c	21.6$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+2.9wins	+0.37per pick	51cpaid	+72.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd544…cbf0backed Wizards	50c	21.6$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Wizards	51c	21.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	493	58.6%289 W · 204 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Wizards	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	215	53.5%115 W · 100 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50b6…0da7backed Wizards	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	97	53.6%52 W · 45 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c9e…bba8backed Nets	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Nets (-4.5)this page
Alexandre Sarr: Points O/U 17.5No won
Alexandre Sarr: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Bilal Coulibaly: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Bilal Coulibaly: Points O/U 10.5No won
Bilal Coulibaly: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Egor Demin: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Egor Demin: Points O/U 12.5No won
Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Kyshawn George: Points O/U 14.5No won
Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 25.5No won
Spread: Nets (-13.5)Nets won
Spread: Nets (-19.5)Wizards won
Spread: Nets (-24.5)Wizards won
Spread: Nets (-29.5)Wizards won
Spread: Nets (-5.5)Nets won
Spread: Nets (-7.5)Nets won
Spread: Nets (-9.5)Nets won
Wizards vs. NetsNets won
Wizards vs. Nets: 1H MoneylineNets won
Wizards vs. Nets: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 216.5Over won
Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 217.5Over won
Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 218.5Over won
Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 219.5Over won
Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 220.5Over won
Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 222.5Over won
Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 223.5Over won
Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 228.5Over won
Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 229.5Over won
Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 231.5Over won
Wizards vs. Nets: O/U 234.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Nets (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event