TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kentucky Wildcatsof Kentucky Wildcats, Arkansas Razorbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$181,580
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$171,323

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,580 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbdd…a5debacked Arkansas Razorbacks3c44,675$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.234,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd95c…f1d7backed Arkansas Razorbacks58c43,221$25,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,068.431172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+27.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Kentucky Wildcats42c43,000$18,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,940.1314940.3%60 W · 89 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Arkansas Razorbacks4c8,730$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.731,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arkansas Razorbacks7c5,859$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.041,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Arkansas Razorbacks3c3,449$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.612,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Arkansas Razorbacks3c2,311$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3435452.3%185 W · 169 L+17.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Kentucky Wildcats54c1,678$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.563,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2c0…69d0backed Arkansas Razorbacks72c1,566$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.926538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks72c1,400$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.962,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d93…d9f5backed Arkansas Razorbacks64c1,257$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.161145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kentucky Wildcats47c1,082$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.535,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Arkansas Razorbacks55c1,058$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.841,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Kentucky Wildcats32c1,052$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.311,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Arkansas Razorbacks55c922.44$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.511,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Arkansas Razorbacks58c826.72$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4787864.1%50 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Arkansas Razorbacks59c667.98$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.32,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8f9…5707backed Arkansas Razorbacks31c648.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Kentucky Wildcats30c555.89$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38766831.4%210 W · 458 L-43.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Kentucky Wildcats28c535$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.71,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Arkansas Razorbacks57c467.47$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.455840.3%225 W · 333 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Kentucky Wildcats56c436$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.4972248.8%352 W · 370 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Kentucky Wildcats27c426.36$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.2474649.2%367 W · 379 L+1.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e5…eb6abacked Arkansas Razorbacks43c419.99$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18015733.1%52 W · 105 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks74c405.41$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30045351.4%233 W · 220 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Kentucky Wildcats52c371.06$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.111,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c307.33$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.2721149.3%104 W · 107 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed Kentucky Wildcats27c300$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21914354.5%78 W · 65 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x871e…6566backed Kentucky Wildcats70c292.56$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.634858.3%28 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Arkansas Razorbacks55c273.48$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.882828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x958a…c897backed Kentucky Wildcats61c263.25$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.2523331.3%73 W · 160 L+0.9wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Arkansas Razorbacks35c262.27$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.062,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec6c…23c7backed Kentucky Wildcats22c215$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.0538343.6%167 W · 216 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b2…9ac1backed Kentucky Wildcats49c201.48$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.331957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfeec…a84abacked Kentucky Wildcats20c200$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1605740.4%23 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Kentucky Wildcats55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901,26043.3%545 W · 715 L+34.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Arkansas Razorbacks38c166.79$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.093,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f3d…fadabacked Arkansas Razorbacks53c166.65$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.562532%8 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Arkansas Razorbacks45c149$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.572,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda4d…217abacked Arkansas Razorbacks39c149$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.93560%21 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a61…1787backed Kentucky Wildcats28c140.78$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.3616445.1%74 W · 90 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f2…49b3backed Kentucky Wildcats28c140$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.82030%6 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Arkansas Razorbacks26c137.31$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5d…76b0backed Arkansas Razorbacks50c132.01$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.561729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6c10…4e76backed Kentucky Wildcats41c121.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.6420024%48 W · 152 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Arkansas Razorbacks52c120.08$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.865,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1c72…78edbacked Arkansas Razorbacks42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Kentucky Wildcats50c116.97$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6999848.4%483 W · 515 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc01…d914backed Kentucky Wildcats36c114.57$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.8212537.6%47 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Kentucky Wildcats26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7416051.3%82 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x850a…e5dbbacked Kentucky Wildcats65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3518167.4%122 W · 59 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Kentucky Wildcats26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7458345.5%265 W · 318 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7e…f17dbacked Kentucky Wildcats46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544316.3%7 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Kentucky Wildcats28c95.52$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.972,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Arkansas Razorbacks74c91.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0720548.8%100 W · 105 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+35.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Kentucky Wildcats44c88.52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3645953.8%247 W · 212 L-1.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Arkansas Razorbacks53c85.96$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.761,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Arkansas Razorbacks46c80$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.831537.8%119 W · 196 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18f6…b00bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks73c79.56$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585158.8%30 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick66cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks63c79.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.091,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Kentucky Wildcats26c76.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9235646.6%166 W · 190 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x085d…5302backed Kentucky Wildcats46c75.72$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8913550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Kentucky Wildcats44c70$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.281,00355.3%555 W · 448 L+46.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d84…6df0backed Arkansas Razorbacks59c66.66$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3353646.5%249 W · 287 L-24.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04f8…6dcebacked Kentucky Wildcats33c65.64$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.04944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Arkansas Razorbacks62c65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406357.1%36 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas Razorbacks72c62.51$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0112,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Arkansas Razorbacks75c60.8$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.72,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Arkansas Razorbacks58c53.33$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8725239.3%99 W · 153 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfb0…466fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks39c50.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99134.1%31 W · 60 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-35.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x26dc…95c4backed Arkansas Razorbacks22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.22524%6 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6c5…0d72backed Kentucky Wildcats54c48.48$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.32030%6 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5101…4a4fbacked Kentucky Wildcats52c48.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0822656.2%127 W · 99 L+14.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed Arkansas Razorbacks55c45.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254045%18 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67b5…7276backed Arkansas Razorbacks47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-35.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc006…036abacked Kentucky Wildcats39c40.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.583240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdda1…cd81backed Kentucky Wildcats28c37.3$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.84450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+75.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe384…7fafbacked Kentucky Wildcats70c34.85$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.421450%7 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8f…1f83backed Arkansas Razorbacks74c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.264658.8%380 W · 266 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a05…754abacked Arkansas Razorbacks38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Kentucky Wildcats45c28.15$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5327358.6%160 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda1d…5402backed Arkansas Razorbacks79c27.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Arkansas Razorbacks55c21.07$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6138345.4%174 W · 209 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f22…3f6cbacked Arkansas Razorbacks51c20.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.38742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Kentucky Wildcats65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.11,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d17…18eebacked Arkansas Razorbacks59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b80…8e56backed Arkansas Razorbacks74c17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.584047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.