Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Nacional vs. Vitória SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ae1aa36ded25c449f51662b8d909bb2b13301604f0a13912bb04a36ed9ef901
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked Yes | 29c | 16,457$4,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,772.53 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 63c | 4,315$2,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.32 | 518 | 42.1%218 W · 300 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Yes | 16c | 4,081$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.91 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +109%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 2,948$2,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.94 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked No | 71c | 2,400$1,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 70c | 1,777$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.34 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 29c | 1,724$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed No | 71c | 1,400$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 1,278$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.07 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 71c | 1,200$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 71c | 1,184$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.36 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 70c | 1,054$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.6 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed No | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 71c | 938$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.02 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed No | 71c | 920$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.8 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 71c | 800$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 71c | 800$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 71c | 600$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 54c | 538.75$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.93 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Yes | 29c | 517.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 37c | 413$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.51 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed No | 71c | 320$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked No | 71c | 312$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 71c | 280$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 60c | 269$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.6 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 71c | 268.48$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…3fa2backed No | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 14c | 244.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 715 | 33.8%242 W · 473 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 67c | 229$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 29c | 198.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 892 | 58.2%519 W · 373 L | +58.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 59.3%227 W · 156 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 28c | 171.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 129.84$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 71c | 116.11$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 19c | 106.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 233 | 48.1%112 W · 121 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed No | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 78c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 71c | 72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Yes | 37c | 66.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 56.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 61c | 44.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 79 | 22.8%18 W · 61 L | -14.9wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 60c | 41.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5657…0e72backed No | 50c | 36.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 69c | 36.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…af73backed No | 72c | 27.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…6617backed No | 72c | 19.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…b5e3backed No | 72c | 17.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b8…599bbacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Nacional vs. Vitória SC end in a draw?this page
- Will CD Nacional win on 2026-05-16?Yes won
- Will Vitória SC win on 2026-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.