NBA · resolved market
Spread: Jazz (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cecd1fd5a5640131babf74317ff5ae7fea38ab41d6831f125ddd50c0bc169c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Jazz, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Jazz | 53c | 80,000$42,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,599.99 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Pacers | 47c | 67,885$31,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,905.86 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 47c | 8,362$3,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,930.23 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 47c | 7,283$3,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,387.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Jazz | 54c | 6,381$3,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,935.44 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pacers | 47c | 5,850$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,749.7 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Pacers | 48c | 4,242$2,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.16 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Jazz | 53c | 4,075$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,915.25 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Pacers | 45c | 3,539$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.95 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf9…5b10backed Jazz | 52c | 3,165$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.71 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 48c | 2,528$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.1 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…07abbacked Pacers | 45c | 2,233$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 173 | 56.1%97 W · 76 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Jazz | 56c | 2,137$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.59 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Jazz | 55c | 2,038$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.24 | 375 | 57.6%216 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Jazz | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Jazz | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Jazz | 50c | 1,421$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.63 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Pacers | 46c | 1,175$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.63 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pacers | 57c | 677.17$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.81 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Jazz | 52c | 607.1$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.33 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Jazz | 53c | 489.85$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.29 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Pacers | 48c | 472.67$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.68 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Pacers | 49c | 392.65$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.95 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Jazz | 55c | 200.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…b906backed Pacers | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 263 | 39.5%104 W · 159 L | -13.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Jazz | 51c | 192.79$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Jazz | 54c | 143$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Jazz | 53c | 122.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Pacers | 47c | 110.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz | 49c | 98.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Jazz | 39c | 94.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Pacers | 48c | 79.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Jazz | 51c | 78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Jazz | 54c | 75.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Jazz | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Pacers | 49c | 67.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Jazz | 53c | 61.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Pacers | 47c | 50.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Jazz | 53c | 49.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…6875backed Pacers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed Pacers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 245 | 66.9%164 W · 81 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Jazz | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Jazz | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Pacers | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Jazz | 53c | 31.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3955…74cabacked Pacers | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d68abacked Pacers | 49c | 30.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Pacers | 47c | 30.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Jazz | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…7adebacked Jazz | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cea…5013backed Pacers | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Jazz (-1.5)this page
- Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Bennedict Mathurin: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jazz vs. PacersJazz won
- Jazz vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Johnny Furphy: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Kyle Filipowski: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Kyle Filipowski: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Lauri Markkanen: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Lauri Markkanen: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Lauri Markkanen: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Pacers (-3.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Pacers (-4.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Pacers (-5.5)Jazz won
- T.J. McConnell: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.