NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pacers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1740ba366cfcdf5ce26fd016a460c26ebd5c7d911b0f7d1d34aaee3ab17d1e8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Pacers, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Pacers | 45c | 3,069$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.05 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Jazz | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 68c | 1,694$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Pacers | 41c | 1,633$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.15 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz | 64c | 1,518$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.53 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pacers | 43c | 1,505$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.15 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Pacers | 36c | 782$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.52 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 54c | 709.38$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Pacers | 35c | 698.68$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.85 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Jazz | 59c | 622.52$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.77 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Pacers | 41c | 562.45$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.02 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Pacers | 40c | 503.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 359 | 42.1%151 W · 208 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Pacers | 13c | 481.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Pacers | 45c | 447.23$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.15 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Jazz | 55c | 406.24$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.84 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Pacers | 31c | 385.29$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.15 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe711…3dd2backed Jazz | 75c | 267.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Pacers | 29c | 234.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Jazz | 59c | 203$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Pacers | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Jazz | 62c | 193.81$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Jazz | 53c | 137.6$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Pacers | 44c | 125$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Jazz | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Pacers | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Pacers | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Jazz | 55c | 98.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Pacers | 22c | 92.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 44.1%104 W · 132 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Jazz | 70c | 92.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Pacers | 46c | 69.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Pacers | 32c | 63.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Pacers | 44c | 50.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pacers | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Jazz | 66c | 49.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f8…c493backed Pacers | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pacers | 45c | 37.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Pacers | 37c | 37.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 470 | 45.1%212 W · 258 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Jazz | 68c | 36.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Jazz | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Pacers | 44c | 34.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…23ccbacked Pacers | 45c | 34.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…d7e9backed Jazz | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…6575backed Jazz | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Jazz | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Jazz | 53c | 27.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…ce69backed Jazz | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 97 | 64.9%63 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x049b…ebb2backed Pacers | 47c | 26.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Jazz | 54c | 26.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Jazz | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…ad29backed Jazz | 70c | 25.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Pacers | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949d…374cbacked Jazz | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +5.3wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x31f7…f22dbacked Pacers | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6f…a011backed Pacers | 47c | 22.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked Jazz | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Jazz | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pacers (-4.5)this page
- Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Bennedict Mathurin: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Jazz vs. PacersJazz won
- Jazz vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Johnny Furphy: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Kyle Filipowski: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Kyle Filipowski: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Lauri Markkanen: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Lauri Markkanen: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Lauri Markkanen: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Jazz (-1.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Pacers (-3.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Pacers (-5.5)Jazz won
- T.J. McConnell: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.