TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Madrid Open: Alycia Parks vs Ann Li

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ann Liof Alycia Parks, Ann Li
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$494,716
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$563,320

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $494,716 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 317 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb7f5…c669backed Alycia Parks22c26,988$5,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,997.2715048%72 W · 78 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Alycia Parks32c24,101$7,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,645.2927846%128 W · 150 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Ann Li59c14,200$8,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,760.9622242.8%95 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1e…2b75backed Alycia Parks0c14,101$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Alycia Parks23c14,030$3,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,291.478,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a12…d3febacked Ann Li52c13,995$7,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,717.599247.8%44 W · 48 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…f361backed Alycia Parks43c11,061$4,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,755.783948.7%19 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Ann Li65c10,049$6,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,483.8248851.6%252 W · 236 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Alycia Parks19c9,580$1,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.71,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Alycia Parks24c9,421$2,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,283.8368026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Alycia Parks32c7,404$2,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,388.329,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Alycia Parks30c6,178$1,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,864.4434136.4%124 W · 217 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Ann Li56c4,677$2,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,048.874,60267.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L+309.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Alycia Parks24c4,468$1,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.297,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Ann Li76c4,240$3,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.492,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x659f…04e4backed Alycia Parks1c3,648$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6610359.2%61 W · 42 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cee…0d1ebacked Ann Li60c3,387$2,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.2818849.5%93 W · 95 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Alycia Parks21c3,352$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.212,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Ann Li59c3,093$1,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,268.1954345.3%246 W · 297 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9451…c3f9backed Alycia Parks25c2,925$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.156723.9%16 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Alycia Parks37c2,760$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.133,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Ann Li65c2,742$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.128655.8%48 W · 38 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Ann Li55c2,661$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.621,20649%591 W · 615 L+11.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Ann Li53c2,600$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.9929146%134 W · 157 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c4…3e8fbacked Alycia Parks52c2,582$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.2411843.2%51 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1e…d5dfbacked Ann Li61c2,432$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.0918250%91 W · 91 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Alycia Parks40c2,186$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.936,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Ann Li75c2,039$1,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.731,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Alycia Parks47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.9958734.6%203 W · 384 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Alycia Parks43c1,905$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81913631.6%43 W · 93 L-11.7wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f04…7994backed Ann Li57c1,710$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.34628.3%13 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Ann Li76c1,687$1,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.8462061.9%384 W · 236 L-18.7wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Ann Li66c1,683$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.394,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Alycia Parks39c1,541$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.5781938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90e…107abacked Alycia Parks34c1,534$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb272…ee5abacked Alycia Parks20c1,348$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.0114822.3%33 W · 115 L-14.8wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9dfd…aadebacked Alycia Parks3c1,211$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3213557.8%78 W · 57 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26e7…cc6cbacked Alycia Parks34c1,208$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.7939238.8%152 W · 240 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…86dbbacked Alycia Parks2c1,193$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4413949.6%69 W · 70 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Alycia Parks44c1,160$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.261,16137.6%437 W · 724 L-27.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Alycia Parks45c1,125$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.741,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d30…89ccbacked Ann Li78c1,122$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.2617450%87 W · 87 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Ann Li68c1,021$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.724,47451.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L+133.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a41…1cbbbacked Alycia Parks43c1,003$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.0510641.5%44 W · 62 L-10.5wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-20.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Alycia Parks47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47059348.9%290 W · 303 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Alycia Parks35c999.87$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.965253.8%28 W · 24 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Ann Li53c982.44$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.7597745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Alycia Parks40c964$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.644038.4%169 W · 271 L-27.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a75…4342backed Alycia Parks23c962.09$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.282857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Ann Li67c924.6$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.5911,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Alycia Parks32c911.06$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.6115252.6%80 W · 72 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Alycia Parks44c909.01$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.9676140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62ff…6b66backed Ann Li56c869.29$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.493836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a80…b808backed Alycia Parks45c863.72$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.689643.8%42 W · 54 L-10.2wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-22.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Alycia Parks36c860.2$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.625,00941.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L-82.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Alycia Parks40c829.17$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.794146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Alycia Parks45c802.73$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.311,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Alycia Parks45c786.05$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.5391050.2%457 W · 453 L-20.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Alycia Parks49c697.81$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.2123429.9%70 W · 164 L-1.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Ann Li56c682.74$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.9666139.3%260 W · 401 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa164…7d86backed Alycia Parks49c674.69$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.5722248.2%107 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0eaf…507bbacked Alycia Parks44c658.91$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9218133.1%60 W · 121 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8bc2…4c80backed Ann Li73c654.97$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.7346473.3%340 W · 124 L+27.0wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked Ann Li77c640.39$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.2921567.4%145 W · 70 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa65…1021backed Alycia Parks45c584.96$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.231435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-45.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb416…4588backed Alycia Parks35c576.6$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.814057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Ann Li76c575$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1381,10252.2%575 W · 527 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x287d…38febacked Alycia Parks22c559.47$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0837421.9%82 W · 292 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6077…3231backed Ann Li53c550.08$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.5417348%83 W · 90 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Alycia Parks48c539.64$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.661,12350.3%565 W · 558 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9172…af2fbacked Alycia Parks38c523.18$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.811040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e4…73f9backed Alycia Parks44c509.53$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.230741.7%128 W · 179 L-1.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe031…5c08backed Alycia Parks18c504.54$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3673549.8%366 W · 369 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Alycia Parks40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20029444.2%130 W · 164 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x521c…f4aabacked Alycia Parks49c494.59$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.3536948.5%179 W · 190 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Ann Li75c476.32$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.721,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15b5…ef23backed Alycia Parks34c458.69$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.171811.1%2 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-75.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Alycia Parks26c455.75$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4972132%231 W · 490 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed Ann Li75c442.05$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.5154249.3%267 W · 275 L-17.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfee2…c654backed Ann Li68c435.54$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.383050%15 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6945…729cbacked Ann Li65c429.93$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.6818932.3%61 W · 128 L+0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid+496.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Alycia Parks45c429.78$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.443449.1%213 W · 221 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e06…4bdabacked Alycia Parks31c421.44$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.522532%8 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-45.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Ann Li51c410.01$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.911945.4%54 W · 65 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Alycia Parks16c409.58$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5385348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e46…5737backed Ann Li58c396.9$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.0925446.5%118 W · 136 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Alycia Parks43c396.62$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.5170752.8%373 W · 334 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Alycia Parks30c392.44$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8496035.4%340 W · 620 L-40.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93cb…3485backed Ann Li75c377.97$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.3930639.9%122 W · 184 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Ann Li55c375.54$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.991,92655.4%1,067 W · 859 L-44.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Ann Li78c357.57$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0243558.6%255 W · 180 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca9…0898backed Ann Li73c354.62$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.7524965.1%162 W · 87 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Alycia Parks29c351.65$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9860355.4%334 W · 269 L+19.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Ann Li73c341.49$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.551,67353%887 W · 786 L+45.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf472…fd6ebacked Alycia Parks11c336.4$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5710742.1%45 W · 62 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Ann Li65c332.82$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.0321655.6%120 W · 96 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Alycia Parks31c311.8$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8485057.5%489 W · 361 L+0.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Alycia Parks19c305.86$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0827935.8%100 W · 179 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ce1…2f49backed Alycia Parks8c297.14$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.775648.2%27 W · 29 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4af7…2381backed Alycia Parks49c296.76$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.419941.4%41 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.