Champions League · resolved market
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d3da959a14ae7be3967b679bcf8a5c2247bb0fdc102fc4392b7799e6c0145bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 16c | 1,071$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.78 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x203d…2b2cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8d…d33fbacked Yes | 13c | 787.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 417.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 77c | 295.65$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5963…dff1backed Yes | 23c | 217.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…8fb9backed Yes | 8c | 156.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5910…a28abacked Yes | 15c | 137.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…e99bbacked No | 80c | 131.71$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 74c | 127.3$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +8.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd19…6910backed Yes | 15c | 106.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…00d0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd12…2a63backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39ff…d637backed Yes | 23c | 88.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…4c52backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 23c | 44.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 74c | 23.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…22ebbacked No | 72c | 20.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final?this page
- Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final?Yes won
- Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final?No won
- Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League final?No won
- Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?No won
- Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League final?No won
- Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League final?No won
- Will Manchester City reach the UEFA Champions League final?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?Yes won
- Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League final?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.