Earnings · resolved market
Will Confluent (CFLT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d4050e35930f5971ac8d439011a1d89fc1c0cca87b77a3af48c4e794abe5819
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 24c | 1,040$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.92 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 11c | 596.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6e…f73dbacked Yes | 75c | 394.01$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…e5eebacked Yes | 77c | 282.02$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 17c | 281.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…65e8backed Yes | 79c | 257$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…3504backed No | 29c | 256.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 20c | 250.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed No | 19c | 203.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 22c | 199.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 21c | 192.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 80c | 159.41$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 75c | 113.16$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 20c | 101.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 22c | 101$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed No | 22c | 99.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 78c | 96.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…5a31backed No | 23c | 95.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 20c | 92.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 77c | 89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 76c | 86.11$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…72f5backed Yes | 78c | 76.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…c4f8backed Yes | 80c | 74.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6f…f078backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed4…a52abacked No | 22c | 64.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23b…4957backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 22c | 62.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 80c | 53.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…ddeebacked Yes | 78c | 46.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…04ccbacked No | 23c | 43.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 78c | 38.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd1…ca22backed Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ba…07a2backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…edc7backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e2…73bebacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2931…7f2cbacked Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 79c | 18.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f30…2639backed Yes | 78c | 14.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.